Southern Transitional Council: Political Challenges and the Fate of the Southern Cause
The Southern Transitional Council in Yemen is facing a critical juncture that may be the most important since its establishment, as it finds itself caught between the need to preserve the political gains it has achieved through partnership in the Presidential Leadership Council, and the increasing popular pressure in the southern governorates that is pushing towards more radical options that may reach the point of a “major clash”.
Historical context and the rise of the Transitional Council
To understand the nature of this test, it is necessary to return to the historical roots of the Southern Movement, which crystallized in an organized manner in 2007, demanding the rights of retired military and civilian personnel, and later evolving into political demands for secession from the north. These movements culminated in the establishment of the Southern Transitional Council in May 2017, to serve as the political representative of the southern cause.
Since then, the council has made significant strides, most notably its recognition as a key party in the Riyadh Agreement of 2019, leading to its active participation in the 2022 Riyadh consultations, which resulted in the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council, thus granting it unprecedented regional and international legitimacy.
Partnership challenges and the reality of the service sector
Despite these diplomatic gains, the council faces numerous internal challenges. The interim capital, Aden, and neighboring governorates are suffering from a severe deterioration in basic services, particularly electricity, and a collapse of the local currency, placing the council in a precarious position with its popular base. The question now is: can the council maintain its policy of patience within the legitimate government to reform the situation, or will public pressure force it to make unilateral decisions that could undermine current agreements?
Future scenarios: between de-escalation and escalation
Observers believe the Southern Transitional Council is walking a tightrope. On the one hand, its leadership understands that abandoning international legitimacy could cost it diplomatic cover and regional support, particularly from the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, the continuation of the current economic situation could lead to an uncontrollable popular uprising.
Regional and international dimensions
The southern scene is inseparable from the regional and international context. The international community, represented by the United Nations and international envoys, is pressing for the preservation of the unity of the Presidential Leadership Council to ensure a united front against the Houthi group and to secure international shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab. Any escalation or major clash in the south could reshuffle the cards and realign alliances, potentially benefiting parties opposed to the legitimate government.
In conclusion, the Transitional Council faces a real test of its ability to maneuver politically; either it succeeds in imposing an equation that guarantees improved services and establishes its political project within the framework of consensus, or it drifts towards confrontational options that may have a high cost to the stability of the entire region.
