Israel's recognition of Somaliland: Fears of displacement and military bases

Geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Horn of Africa amid growing reports that Israel may recognize Somaliland as an independent state. Such a move, if it occurs, would not merely constitute diplomatic recognition, but would open the door to profound strategic shifts, fueling regional anxieties about the establishment of foreign military bases and the potential for displacement, a growing concern in the region.

Historical context: The search for international legitimacy

Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of the central government in Mogadishu. Despite enjoying relative political and security stability compared to its southern neighbor, and possessing its own currency, army, and democratic system, it has not received formal international recognition. This diplomatic isolation has led the Hargeisa government to seek unconventional allies to break the imposed encirclement, a move that aligns with Israeli interests in Africa.

Strategic importance: Red Sea gateway

The significance and danger of this potential rapprochement lie in the sensitive geographical location of Somaliland, which overlooks the Gulf of Aden and is close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital artery for global trade and oil shipments. For decades, Israel has sought to bolster its influence in this region as part of its "encircle strategy," aiming to secure its shipping lanes and monitor hostile movements, particularly in light of the growing threat from the Houthi group in Yemen. Recognizing Somaliland could grant Tel Aviv a strategic military foothold, allowing it to closely monitor the Red Sea.

Fears of "displacement" and military bases

The controversial topic of “displacement” has sparked deep concerns in Arab and African circles. These concerns center on unofficial reports suggesting that vast territories in the Horn of Africa could be exploited as a potential destination for refugees or displaced persons from other conflict zones, in exchange for financial and military support and political recognition. Simultaneously, the possibility of establishing Israeli military bases in Somaliland is viewed as a direct threat to Arab national security, particularly for Egypt and Saudi Arabia, for whom the Red Sea is considered a strategic depth.

Regional and international repercussions

Any official Israeli move in this direction is expected to lead to a sharp diplomatic clash with the Somali Federal Government, which considers Somaliland an integral part of its territory. This rapprochement could also prompt regional powers such as Egypt and Turkey to strengthen their presence in Mogadishu to counterbalance the new influence. Turning the Horn of Africa into an arena for settling international scores could threaten the already fragile stability of the region and further complicate the security landscape in East Africa.