In its latest report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revealed a positive outlook for the future of the energy market, projecting that global oil demand will grow by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027. This forecast underscores the continued global reliance on oil as a primary energy source, highlighting the delicate balance between supply and demand in global markets.
For the current year, the organization maintained its previous estimates, projecting global demand growth of 1.38 million barrels per day. The report reveals a clear divergence in the sources of this growth, with demand in OECD countries expected to increase by a modest 100,000 barrels per day next year, while non-OECD countries will lead the way with an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day, reflecting a shift in the center of gravity of energy consumption towards emerging economies.
The global economic landscape and its impact
Regarding the macroeconomic indicators that drive energy markets, OPEC maintained its outlook for global economic growth at 3.1% during 2026, with expectations that this rate will rise to 3.2% next year, supported by positive indicators about the recovery and smooth flow of global trade.
In detail, regarding the major economies, the organization expects the US economy to grow by 2.1% in 2026, slowing slightly to 2% during 2027. In contrast, the Chinese dragon continues to maintain strong growth rates of 4.5% during the current and next two years, which explains the large share of non-OECD countries in the growth of oil demand.
The importance of the report and the context of energy markets
OPEC reports are of paramount strategic importance in shaping the economic policies of both producing and consuming nations. Amid the global shift towards clean energy, these figures indicate that oil continues to play a pivotal role in meeting the needs of population and industrial growth, particularly in Asia and Africa.
The large disparity between demand growth in developed (OECD) and developing countries reflects the reality of the global economic landscape; developed countries have reached a stage of relative saturation with higher energy efficiency, while developing countries are still in dire need of traditional energy resources to support their infrastructure and industrial expansion.
These forecasts help investors and decision-makers assess the supply levels needed to avoid any future price shocks, as OPEC and its allies always seek to adjust production levels in line with these forecasts to ensure market stability and a safe and sustainable flow of supplies.
