The corridors of the recent African summit witnessed a noticeable diplomatic tension, represented by an "indirect" dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia, as the issue of Red Sea security and recent Ethiopian moves in the Horn of Africa region dominated the general scene, sometimes overshadowing the traditional issues on the agenda.
Shadows of the Memorandum of Understanding with "Somaliland"
This diplomatic row comes at a highly sensitive time, following Ethiopia's signing of a controversial memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland. This agreement grants Addis Ababa access to the Red Sea and a military base in exchange for the potential recognition of the region's independence. Cairo considers this move a direct threat to Arab and African national security and a violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia. This has prompted Egyptian diplomacy to intensify its efforts within the African Union to emphasize its rejection of any unilateral actions that alter the stable geopolitical situation in the region.
Historical context and accumulation of disputes
This new dispute cannot be separated from a long history of tension between the two countries, with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) at its core throughout the past decade. While Ethiopia, a landlocked country since Eritrea's independence in the 1990s, seeks to secure maritime access to bolster its economy and influence, Egypt views these moves, particularly when they overstep international legal frameworks and infringe upon the sovereignty of neighboring states, as an attempt to impose regional hegemony that could affect maritime security in the Red Sea, a vital artery for the Suez Canal and the Egyptian economy.
Strategic importance and impact of the event
This dispute is of paramount importance given the geostrategic location of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea. Any tension in this region not only affects the littoral states but also impacts global trade. Political circles fear that Ethiopia's insistence on implementing the agreement with Somaliland could militarize the Red Sea and draw competing international powers into the region, further complicating an already fragile security landscape amidst ongoing conflicts in Sudan and Yemen.
regional and international position
During the summit, Egypt sought to garner African support for upholding the principles of the African Union's Constitutive Act, specifically respecting borders inherited at independence. Observers note that this indirect debate reflects a power struggle over who holds the keys to regional security. Egypt is attempting to maintain traditional balances and support the Somali government in Mogadishu, while Ethiopia is trying to break its geographical isolation by imposing a new reality. This situation foreshadows a continuation of the diplomatic stalemate and potentially a political escalation in future international forums.
