Regional and international attention is turning to the Horn of Africa, with increasing talk of Egyptian peacekeeping forces participating in Somalia as part of new security arrangements following the withdrawal of the African Union Transitional Military Mission (ATMIS). This anticipated move comes at a highly sensitive time, as the Somali government seeks to establish full control over its territory and combat the al-Shabaab movement, while Cairo aims to strengthen its strategic presence in a region vital to Egyptian national security.
Historical context and deep-rooted relationships
Relations between Cairo and Mogadishu are not a recent development, but rather extend back decades of joint cooperation. Egypt has always been a key supporter of Somalia's independence and territorial integrity. Recently, relations have witnessed a qualitative leap, culminating in the signing of a military cooperation protocol between the two countries and high-level reciprocal visits between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Somali counterpart, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The talk of deploying Egyptian forces as part of the new African Union Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will begin its work in January 2025, is a practical manifestation of this rapprochement and a replacement for the Ethiopian forces whose withdrawal the Somali government has requested.
The strategic importance of the event
Egyptian peacekeeping forces in Somalia carries profound strategic implications that go beyond mere traditional military support:
- Protecting the security of the Red Sea: The stability of Somalia, which has the longest coastline in Africa and overlooks the Gulf of Aden, is a key pillar for securing the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, a lifeline for the Egyptian economy.
- Strengthening the regional role: This step reflects Egypt’s desire to restore its leading role in the African continent, specifically in the Horn of Africa region, which is witnessing fierce international and regional competition.
- Supporting Somali legitimacy: The Egyptian presence represents direct support for the federal government in the face of internal challenges and external threats, thus strengthening the unity of Somali territory.
Security and logistical challenges
Despite its strategic importance, the mission is not without significant challenges for the participating forces. The most prominent of these is the ongoing threat posed by Al-Shabaab, which employs guerrilla warfare tactics and surprise attacks. Furthermore, the operation requires substantial logistical resources to secure supply lines in a complex geographical environment. The tense geopolitical landscape in the region, particularly the disputes between Somalia and Ethiopia, also influences the composition of the forces and the allocation of their tasks, necessitating close coordination with the African Union and international partners to ensure the mission's success and achieve the desired stability.
