Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's recent statements regarding his country's need for sovereign access to the Red Sea have sparked widespread debate and questions in the Horn of Africa and internationally. These proposals range from being genuine calls for regional economic integration to being seen as negotiating tactics aimed at achieving geopolitical gains or diverting attention from internal challenges.
Historical context: The landlocked state complex
To understand the depth of these demands, we must go back a little, specifically to 1993, when Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia, turning the latter into a landlocked country that lost its entire coastline and its two main ports of Assab and Massawa. Since then, Addis Ababa has been forced to rely almost entirely on the ports of neighboring countries, especially the port of Djibouti, through which more than 95% of Ethiopia's foreign trade now passes. This strategic dependence costs the Ethiopian treasury billions of dollars annually in transit fees and port service charges, which Abiy Ahmed sees as an obstacle to the economic growth of a country with a population exceeding 120 million.
The nature of the Ethiopian proposals
The Ethiopian government recently floated the idea of a "give and take" approach, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed proposing to grant neighboring countries (such as Eritrea, Somalia, or Djibouti) shares in major strategic Ethiopian assets, like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam or Ethiopian Airlines, in exchange for permanent access to the sea. While Ethiopian rhetoric attempts to frame these demands in commercial and developmental terms, describing the Red Sea as a "natural border" and an existential issue, the language has sometimes included veiled threats of force should diplomatic avenues fail. The government quickly denied these accusations, reaffirming its commitment to a peaceful solution.
Regional and international impact
These ambitions were met with staunch rejection and apprehension from neighboring countries. Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea all considered their sovereignty over their territories and territorial waters a red line, non-negotiable. Observers believe that Ethiopia's insistence on this issue could reshape alliances in the already volatile Horn of Africa. Regionally, there are fears that any escalation could destabilize a vital global shipping lane through which a significant portion of world trade and oil passes. Internationally, major powers are watching these developments cautiously, given the strategic importance of the Red Sea in global security equations.
In conclusion: Is it a maneuver?
Some analysts believe that raising this issue at this time may be a political maneuver to bolster and unify the Ethiopian domestic front behind a major "national cause," especially given the internal tensions in some regions. However, the geographical and economic realities remain: Ethiopia is seeking a maritime outlet to secure its economic future, and the question remains how it will achieve this without igniting a new regional crisis.
