Informed sources, citing the Arab Coalition, revealed detailed information about the escape route of the head of the Southern Transitional Council, Aidarus al-Zubaidi, from the interim capital, Aden. His journey, described as an "escape," included unconventional stops across the Horn of Africa before he finally settled in the United Arab Emirates. The information indicates that the journey was not direct, but rather passed through Somaliland, then the Somali capital, Mogadishu, before arriving in the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi.
The general context and escalating tensions in the south
The revelation of this complex path comes at a time when Yemen's southern governorates, particularly Aden, are experiencing ongoing political and military tensions. Since the establishment of the Southern Transitional Council in 2017, headed by Al-Zubaidi, the region has been experiencing a constant cycle of escalation and de-escalation with the internationally recognized legitimate government. These developments are part of a complex landscape in which the Arab Coalition, led by Saudi Arabia, is attempting to manage the disagreements to ensure unified efforts against the Houthi group, as previously outlined in the Riyadh Agreement and the Presidential Leadership Council consultations.
The geopolitical importance of the Horn of Africa route
Choosing a route through Somaliland and Mogadishu carries significant security and geopolitical implications. The sea distance between Aden and the Somali coast (Berbera and Bosaso) is relatively short and has historically served as a corridor for trade, migration, and sometimes smuggling. Adopting this route may indicate a desire for concealment or to avoid direct air routes that could be heavily monitored or unavailable at the time of departure. It also highlights the close security interdependence between the two sides of the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where any instability in Yemen directly impacts the security of the Horn of Africa, and vice versa.
The UAE's role and relationship with the Southern Transitional Council
Al-Zubaidi's eventual arrival in Abu Dhabi comes as no surprise to observers, given the close strategic relationship between the Southern Transitional Council and the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi has long been a key supporter of the council and has served as a residence for many of its leaders in the past. Al-Zubaidi's presence there may be related to a reshuffling of political alliances or high-level consultations concerning the future of southern Yemen and the council's role in the comprehensive political settlement that the United Nations and the international community are seeking to impose to end the war in Yemen.
The event's impact on the Yemeni scene
The revelation of this escape route raises questions about the security situation in Aden and the extent to which various factions control official entry points. This event could also trigger new political dynamics within the Presidential Leadership Council, particularly given the differing visions for managing the transitional phase. The stability and actions of the political leadership remain crucial indicators for understanding the future of the conflict, as the Yemeni public awaits the outcome of these developments, whether they lead to a new escalation or pave the way for another round of political negotiations.
