In a move reflecting growing optimism about the resilience of international markets, Fitch Ratings raised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.1% compared to its previous World Economic Outlook report published last September. This positive revision comes amid signs of improving economic performance in key regions around the world, sending reassuring signals to investors and financial policymakers.
New growth figures and forecasts
According to the updated report, the agency expects the global economy to grow by 2.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. These revised forecasts are based on accurate data indicating better-than-expected performance by the Eurozone economy, as well as strong momentum in the technology sector.
Regarding the major economies, the details of the forecasts are as follows:
- Eurozone: Fitch forecasts growth of 1.4% in 2025, followed by growth of 1.3% the following year, indicating a gradual recovery from previous economic pressures.
- United States of America: The world's largest economy is likely to grow by 1.8% in 2025, rising to 1.9% in 2026, reflecting relative stability despite inflation challenges.
- China: The outlook maintains relatively strong growth rates compared to advanced economies, with growth expected to reach 4.8% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026.
The role of technology and artificial intelligence in promoting growth
The agency explained that one of the main drivers of this optimism is the strong increase in investments in the information technology sector . Fitch expects a sharp recovery in private sector spending linked to the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, a phenomenon that has become a key driver for advanced economies.
In this context, the agency raised its forecast for US private sector capital spending to nearly 4% this year. This is attributed to the global race to adopt artificial intelligence technologies, which requires massive technological infrastructure and investments in software and hardware, creating a dynamic economic cycle.
Economic context and inflation challenges
These projections come at a time when the world is closely monitoring inflation and interest rate trends. Despite the optimism, the agency still anticipates a slowdown in US consumption this year due to rising inflation, which is squeezing real wages, and sluggish job growth. However, consumer spending has shown greater resilience than expected, bolstered by gains in equity wealth, which has helped to mitigate the economic slowdown.
The agency is currently awaiting national accounts data for the third quarter of this year to get a clearer picture, but the general trend indicates that the global economy has succeeded in avoiding the severe recession scenarios that analysts had feared earlier, heading towards what is known as a "soft landing" and relative stability.
