Amid rapid economic shifts and geopolitical changes reshaping the global investment landscape, Deutsche Bank today issued a bold forecast indicating the possibility of gold prices surging to nearly $6,000 per ounce by 2026. This forecast comes amid a wave of portfolio reallocation, as major investors and asset managers continue to increase their allocations to real assets and non-US dollar-denominated assets, hedging against the volatility of fiat currencies.
Record performance and consensus among financial institutions
Deutsche Bank wasn't alone in this optimistic outlook; gold reached record highs in spot trading, surpassing $5,100 an ounce yesterday. Analysts attribute this meteoric rise to the increasing uncertainty gripping global markets, driving capital towards traditional safe havens. The German bank also indicated that alternative scenarios could push the price even higher, reaching $6,900, a level it considers consistent with the strong momentum the precious metal has experienced over the past two years.
Analysts at Société Générale, for their part, expect gold to reach the $6,000 mark by the end of this year, describing this estimate as "conservative" given the existing upside potential. Morgan Stanley also joined the chorus of optimists, indicating the possibility of continued gains toward $5,700 per ounce, reflecting a broad consensus among major financial institutions on the continuation of the precious metal's upward trend.
Catalysts: Central banks and geopolitical tensions
Historically, gold has been considered a true store of value during times of crisis. Prices have surged by more than 17% since the beginning of 2026, capping a remarkable 64% rally over the past year. This strong performance is primarily driven by the "market whales"—the world's central banks—which are ramping up their gold purchases to diversify their foreign reserves and reduce their reliance on the dollar, as well as by massive inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Monetary policy and pressures on the Federal Reserve
On the monetary front, markets are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting, which begins later today. Expectations point to interest rates remaining unchanged, despite the exceptional political circumstances surrounding the criminal investigation being conducted by the Trump administration into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. This unprecedented clash between the political establishment and the monetary authority adds a new layer of risk, enhancing gold's appeal as a hedge against institutional turmoil and expectations of future interest rate cuts.
