The giant US investment bank Goldman Sachs has issued a significant update to its global oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026, reflecting a keen understanding of rapidly evolving economic and geopolitical dynamics. The bank raised its price estimates for benchmark crudes, citing recent data on global inventory levels, amid market anticipation surrounding new US trade policies.
Details of the new price forecasts
According to a research note issued by the bank, the price forecast for benchmark Brent crude was raised by $6 to $60 per barrel . The revision also included West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, with its estimate raised to $56 per barrel . While these adjustments represent an improved outlook compared to the bank's previous estimates, Goldman Sachs analysts emphasized that these prices still represent a significant discount to current price levels, by approximately $10 per barrel, indicating a general downward trend in the market over the medium term.
Inventory dynamics and their impact on supply
The bank attributed this upward revision in its forecast primarily to weaker-than-expected growth in oil inventories in developed countries. The report noted that the absence of a clear build-up in inventories at key pricing centers within the OECD was a crucial factor. Typically, high inventories exert downward pressure on prices, so their slower-than-expected growth suggests tighter supply than previously anticipated, providing technical support for prices at the aforementioned levels.
Protectionist policies and their impact on the global economy
This report comes at a time of great uncertainty in the global economic landscape, particularly following recent trade policy decisions by US President Donald Trump. The president announced an increase in temporary tariffs on US imports from all countries from 10% to 15%, the maximum rate permitted by law. This decision was a direct response to the US Supreme Court's ruling against his previous tariff program, opening the door to a new phase of trade tensions.
Expected economic repercussions
Economic experts believe these protectionist measures could cast a dark shadow over global economic growth. High tariffs typically slow international trade and increase the cost of goods, which in turn puts pressure on consumption rates and reduces global demand for fuel and energy. Consequently, the oil price equation in the last quarter of 2026 will be governed by a struggle between two factors: relative supply constraints (which support prices) and fears of a decline in demand due to trade wars (which put downward pressure on prices). This explains Goldman Sachs' cautious outlook despite the slight upward revision.
