Grundberg warns of the collapse of peace in Yemen and the expansion of the conflict
The UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to Yemen, Hans Grundberg, warned of the growing risks that threaten to undermine progress in the Yemeni peace process, noting that the hard-won gains of the past period are now vulnerable to a real setback in light of escalating regional tensions.
Grundberg stressed in his briefing that the current situation in Yemen is extremely fragile, as the country is still in a state of neither war nor peace. Despite the decrease in the pace of major military operations since the ceasefire came into effect in April 2022, the continued military mobilization and skirmishes on the fronts, in conjunction with the geopolitical developments in the region, put Yemen at a dangerous crossroads that could lead to a wider return to the cycle of violence.
Background of the conflict and the fragile truce
Yemen has been experiencing a complex humanitarian and political crisis since the outbreak of the conflict. The UN-brokered truce in 2022 marked a significant turning point, contributing to a reduction in casualties, facilitating fuel deliveries through the port of Hodeidah, and allowing the resumption of some flights from Sana'a airport. These steps, considered tangible gains for the Yemeni people, are now what the UN envoy fears will be lost if a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire agreement is not reached.
The impact of regional tensions and the widening conflict
Grundberg's warnings come at a time of widespread regional instability, particularly tensions in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, which have cast a dark shadow over the Yemeni crisis. Observers believe that linking the Yemeni conflict to regional disputes complicates UN and international mediation efforts and threatens to derail the previously agreed-upon roadmap, potentially dragging Yemen into a wider regional conflict that transcends its geographical borders—a scenario the envoy explicitly warned against using the phrase "expansion of the conflict.".
The strategic and humanitarian importance of de-escalation
Maintaining calm in Yemen is not only important for security but also for economic and humanitarian reasons. Yemen, which is suffering the world's worst humanitarian crisis according to the United Nations, desperately needs stability to address pressing economic issues such as paying public sector salaries, unifying the currency, and reconstruction. Any further military setback would mean a double catastrophe for the millions who depend on humanitarian aid and would undermine prospects for economic recovery for years to come.
Grundberg concluded his call by stressing the need for all Yemeni parties to exercise maximum restraint and to separate the internal peace process from regional rivalries, in order to ensure that there is no return to square one of the bloody conflict.
