With the negotiations stalled in recent weeks, diplomatic and political efforts have once again taken center stage. Reports and analyses indicate that Iran's bargaining and political tactics are playing a pivotal role in reviving the stalled Gaza agreement. This comes at a time of cautious anticipation in the region, amidst concerted international and regional efforts to prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-blown regional war.
Crisis context and political background
Since the outbreak of war on October 7, negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza and a prisoner exchange have not been merely a bilateral matter between Israel and Hamas, but have quickly transformed into a complex regional and international issue. Tehran has long been a key player in the Middle East equation through its support for what is known as the "Axis of Resistance," which includes factions in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, in addition to Gaza. With negotiations in Cairo and Doha repeatedly faltering due to intransigent positions and conflicting demands, Iran's role has emerged as an influential factor, whether through calculated escalations on the ground by its allies or through indirect diplomatic messages to the United States.
Iranian bargaining: a brinkmanship strategy
In this context, the term “Iranian bargaining” refers to Tehran’s strategy for managing its influence. On the one hand, it does not want to lose its strategic ally in Gaza, and on the other hand, it seeks to avoid a direct military confrontation with the United States or Israel that could threaten its internal stability. Therefore, recent Iranian moves are interpreted as an attempt to trade de-escalation on its support fronts (such as southern Lebanon and the Red Sea) for an agreement that guarantees the continued presence of the resistance in Gaza and a halt to Israeli military operations. This bargaining puts pressure on the US administration, which is striving to end the war before the presidential elections, thus pushing Washington to exert greater pressure on the Israeli side to show flexibility in the negotiations.
Its importance and expected impact regionally and internationally
The success of these negotiations in pushing towards a "Gaza agreement" has extremely important strategic dimensions:
- Regionally, the agreement means defusing a major conflagration in the Middle East. Reaching a truce in Gaza is closely linked to halting the escalation on the Lebanese-Israeli border and calming attacks in the Red Sea, thus restoring stability to international shipping lanes.
- On the international level, this move is a test of the ability of international diplomacy and mediators (Qatar and Egypt) to find compromises between parties with conflicting interests. Furthermore, Iran's involvement in the settlement process, even indirectly, could pave the way for broader understandings regarding the nuclear issue or regional influence in the future.
- On the local level: For the people of Gaza, any movement of the stagnant waters represents hope for ending the catastrophic human suffering, the return of the displaced, and the start of real relief operations.
In conclusion, it appears that the “Gaza Agreement” is no longer just a security document, but has become part of a broad regional political bazaar, where all parties, including Iran, are trying to improve their negotiating terms before concluding the final deal.
