Israel's recognition of Somaliland strengthens the Egyptian-Somali military alliance
The Horn of Africa has witnessed rapid geopolitical developments recently, with strategic reports and analyses indicating that Israel's steps toward strengthening relations with the self-declared Republic of Somaliland—which could amount to diplomatic recognition—have provided a strong impetus for accelerating military and security coordination between Cairo and Mogadishu. This move comes at a time when the region is undergoing a reshaping of regional alliances, putting the security of the Red Sea and the interests of Arab states at risk.
Regional context and importance of the Horn of Africa
This event cannot be understood in isolation from the paramount strategic importance of the Horn of Africa, which controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Historically, numerous international and regional powers have sought a foothold in this region to ensure maritime security and safeguard global trade routes. For Israel, its presence in Somaliland represents a strategic opportunity to monitor waterways and contain potential threats. However, this presence is a source of grave concern for the Arab states bordering the Red Sea, particularly Egypt, which considers the security of this waterway an integral part of its national security, linked to the Suez Canal.
Ethiopia's role and escalating tensions
This news comes amid existing tensions stemming from Ethiopia's signing of a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland in early 2024, granting it access to a sea outlet and a military base. This Ethiopian move, which the Somali Federal Government considered a violation of its sovereignty and territorial integrity, prompted Mogadishu to seek strong regional allies. Somalia found a strategic partner in Egypt, particularly given the ongoing Egyptian-Ethiopian dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). This has led to an unprecedented convergence of interests between Cairo and Mogadishu, aimed at preserving the status quo and preventing any redrawing of the political map in the region.
Details of Egyptian-Somali military coordination
In response to these dual (Israeli and Ethiopian) moves toward the breakaway region, Egypt and Mogadishu elevated their military cooperation to a higher level. This was manifested in the signing of a joint military cooperation protocol, followed by the arrival of shipments of Egyptian military aid to the Somali army, in addition to Egyptian offers to participate in the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia. This coordination aims to rebuild the capabilities of the Somali National Army, enabling it to extend its control over the entire national territory and sending a clear deterrent message to any external parties attempting to exploit the internal divisions in Somalia.
Expected impacts on regional security
Observers believe that Israel's involvement in the Somaliland crisis could transform the region into an arena for international power struggles, further complicating the security landscape in East Africa. Strengthening the alliance between Egypt and Somalia aims not only to protect Somali territorial integrity but also to secure the Arab world's strategic depth against attempts at encirclement. The coming period is expected to witness increased reciprocal visits and joint military exercises between Egypt and Somalia, in an effort to establish a new balance of power that prevents any non-Arab power from monopolizing the region's strategic resources.
