Yemen: The Southern Transitional Council withdraws, and Al-Alimi warns of the agreement's failure

In a significant development in the complex Yemeni landscape, forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) have begun a military withdrawal, described by political and field sources as "doubtful in its seriousness." This comes as the head of the Presidential Leadership Council, Dr. Rashad al-Alimi, issued explicit warnings against circumventing the agreed-upon political and military understandings. These movements are occurring during a sensitive period in the liberated areas, as various parties seek to reorganize their military and security arrangements.

The context of the withdrawal and the challenges of implementing the Riyadh Agreement

This withdrawal cannot be understood in isolation from the historical context of the internal conflict within the anti-Houthi camp. Since the signing of the Riyadh Agreement in November 2019, under the auspices of Saudi Arabia, the military and security aspects have remained the major obstacle to unifying ranks. The agreement and its subsequent understandings stipulate the integration of military formations and the withdrawal of combat forces from major cities, particularly the interim capital, Aden, to enable the government and the Presidential Leadership Council to carry out their duties without factional pressure.

Observers believe the current withdrawal may be a tactical maneuver to absorb regional and international pressure, rather than a strategic step toward fully integrating the forces under the Ministries of Defense and Interior, which explains why the withdrawal is described as "questionable." The political leadership fears this move is merely a repositioning of forces instead of a genuine withdrawal that would pave the way for building strong state institutions.

Al-Alimi's warnings and the importance of unity of decision

Dr. Rashad al-Alimi's warnings are of paramount importance at this time, as his talk of "circumvention" indicates genuine concerns within the council's leadership about the continued duality in military decision-making. Al-Alimi consistently emphasizes that restoring the state and ending the Houthi coup requires genuine unity that transcends mere slogans and translates into practical action on the ground. He warns that any attempt to undermine the agreements will weaken the internal front and serve the Iranian-backed Houthi project.

Expected impacts locally and regionally

This event has far-reaching implications at the local and regional levels:

• Domestically, the stability of the interim capital, Aden, and the southern governorates is directly linked to ending military tensions. Continued troop buildups or token withdrawals hinder the government's efforts to improve services and address the deteriorating economy and currency collapse.
• Regionally: The success of the Presidential Leadership Council in containing internal disputes represents a test for the efforts of the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are pushing towards unifying the armed forces to ensure the security of navigation in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab, especially in light of the current regional escalation.
• Internationally: The international community, through the UN envoy, is watching these moves with caution, as unifying the military institution is considered a prerequisite for entering into any comprehensive peace negotiations to end the war in Yemen.

In conclusion, the scene remains open to all possibilities, as the coming days will reveal whether the "Transitional Council's" withdrawal is a serious step towards stability, or a new chapter in the political wrangling that prolongs the Yemeni crisis.