Moody's credit rating agency affirmed marginal and short-term effects , without placing significant or immediate pressure on the credit ratings of Gulf banks .
According to the agency, this expected stability is due to fundamental factors, namely the strong liquidity enjoyed by these banks, in addition to the solid capital reserves that have been built up over the past years, which form a strong buffer against external fluctuations.
Conflict scenarios and their impact on the region
In its detailed commentary on the current situation, the agency explained that projections indicate the conflict will be relatively short-lived . Even in the event of a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks, estimates do not suggest significant damage to vital production facilities or key energy infrastructure.
The forecasts also indicated that air traffic across the region was likely to resume quickly, reducing the long-term economic repercussions on the transport and tourism sectors, which are indirectly linked to bank loan portfolios.
The economic context and the strength of the Gulf banking sector
It is worth noting that Gulf banks operate within an economic environment supported by relatively stable oil prices and ambitious government economic reform programs (such as Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030). These factors have contributed to strengthening banks’ balance sheets and increasing their resilience to shocks. Historically, Gulf banks have proven their ability to weather regional crises thanks to strong government support and rigorous oversight from central banks that enforce high capital adequacy standards.
Risk management and business continuity
On the operational side, Moody's noted that the main risk transmission channel is operational and liquidity risks. While some temporary disruptions to online banking platforms are possible due to infrastructure damage, investor confidence remains strong.
The agency confirmed that banks maintain Business Continuity Plans , ensuring that core banking systems continue to operate at full capacity to serve customers without interruption, reflecting the maturity of the banks’ technological infrastructure in the Gulf countries.
