Global financial markets are focused on gold, with forecasts indicating that its upward momentum will continue throughout 2026, further cementing its historic record-breaking trajectory. While the pace of the rise may slow compared to the dramatic surges of the previous year, the overall trend still points to unprecedented levels, according to a recent survey conducted by the Financial Times and reviewed by Al Arabiya Business.
Analyst forecasts and new record highs
A survey of 11 leading economic analysts revealed that the average forecast predicts gold prices will rise by nearly 7% to reach $4,610 per ounce by the end of this year. This follows an exceptional year (2025) in which prices surged by a remarkable 64%. In a more optimistic scenario, some experts predict prices will break the $5,000 barrier, reaching $5,400 per ounce, representing a 25% increase from current levels.
Driving factors: Why does gold continue to rise?
Analysts believe that the drivers that fueled the price surge in 2025 remain strong. These factors are primarily:
- Central bank purchases: Central banks, especially in emerging markets, continue to diversify their foreign reserves by accumulating gold to reduce dependence on the US dollar, a strategic trend that boosts long-term demand.
- Safe haven: Amid geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, gold remains the top choice for investors seeking safety and value preservation.
Goldman Sachs' vision and portfolio diversification
For her part, Lena Thomas, an analyst at Goldman Sachs, highlighted the possibility of the price reaching $4,900, noting that the key to this rise lies in investor behavior. She explained that gold allocations in investment portfolios remain historically low, estimating that every 0.01% increase in US investors' gold allocations could raise the price by approximately 1.4%.
Historical context and impact of sanctions
Historically, gold has always reacted sensitively to international crises. This was clearly demonstrated when the metal reached a record high of $4,550 on December 26, driven by the repercussions of the US embargo and sanctions on Venezuela. This close link between international political decisions and metal markets confirms that gold is not merely a commodity, but a mirror reflecting the stability or instability of the global financial system.
While prices saw a slight decline amid year-end volatility, economic fundamentals suggest that 2026 could be another year to cement gold's position as an indispensable investment asset in the face of global economic challenges.
