In a stark warning reflecting escalating geopolitical tensions, the Kremlin on Tuesday highlighted the perilous state of global security as the expiration of the New START treaty, the last remaining pillar of nuclear arms control between the two superpowers, the United States and Russia, approaches. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov asserted that the world will face an unprecedentedly dangerous situation within days, as Washington and Moscow will find themselves, for the first time in decades, without any legal framework governing their respective nuclear arsenals, the largest in the world.
Peskov described this development as “very bad for world security,” pointing to the strategic vacuum that will be left by the treaty’s expiration next Thursday, opening the door to the possibility of a new, unrestrained arms race.
History of the treaty and its strategic importance
To understand the magnitude of the current risks, it is necessary to return to the historical context of the New START Treaty. This agreement was signed in Prague in 2010 by then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, and entered into force in 2011. The treaty came as a successor to previous agreements (such as START I and the Moscow Treaty), and aimed primarily to enhance transparency and trust between the former Cold War adversaries, and to ensure global “strategic stability.”.
Under the terms of the treaty, both parties committed to a strict ceiling of no more than 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads for each side, a 30% reduction compared to the limits imposed in 2002. The treaty also limited the maximum number of heavy bombers and launch platforms to 800 units. Although these numbers are still sufficient to destroy the planet several times over, their existence served as a safety valve preventing military escalation.
Consequences of the absence of nuclear oversight
The expiration of the treaty carries serious repercussions that extend beyond bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington to encompass international peace and security. The absence of verification mechanisms and data exchange means a lack of transparency, increasing the risk of military miscalculation. Experts believe this vacuum could prompt other nuclear-armed states, or those seeking to acquire nuclear weapons, to accelerate their programs, thus threatening the entire nuclear non-proliferation regime.
In February 2023, Russia announced it was suspending its participation in the treaty without formally withdrawing, citing Western support for Ukraine, but pledged to continue respecting the limits on nuclear warheads. Moscow also accused Washington of obstructing reciprocal inspections, which are central to compliance with the treaty.
Missed opportunities and an uncertain future
In an attempt to salvage the situation, the Kremlin revealed an initiative proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin in September 2025 to extend the treaty for one year. Although US President Donald Trump commented briefly at the time, describing the idea as "sounding good," the United States has not offered any official response or taken any concrete steps to implement the extension.
Peskov concluded his remarks by emphasizing that “the Russian initiative is still on the table,” but the continued American silence until the last moment puts the world in front of an unknown scenario, where the legal deterrent that has regulated the nuclear relationship between the two poles for more than a decade is absent.
