Riyadh charts a course for de-escalation in eastern Yemen and the withdrawal of the Southern Transitional Council

Saudi Arabia is intensifying its diplomatic and political efforts to chart a new course for de-escalation in Yemen's eastern provinces, a move aimed at defusing tensions and bolstering the stability of the Presidential Leadership Council. These efforts are part of a comprehensive strategy led by Riyadh to ensure Yemeni unity and resolve internal disputes that could hinder the comprehensive peace process or weaken the domestic front in the face of current challenges.

The context of de-escalation and a smooth exit strategy

Field and political indicators suggest that Riyadh is working to engineer compromise solutions that would ensure what sources described as a "smooth and swift withdrawal" of Southern Transitional Council forces from certain sensitive areas in eastern Yemen, specifically in Hadramawt Governorate and surrounding regions. This move is not a spontaneous action, but rather a continuation of efforts to implement the Riyadh Agreement and the Riyadh consultations, which focused on integrating military and security formations and unifying military command under the umbrella of the Ministries of Defense and Interior within the legitimate Yemeni government.

Through these moves, the Kingdom seeks to avoid any military clash between the anti-Houthi factions, as eastern Yemen is considered a highly strategic region due to its geographical location and oil wealth, making its stability a fundamental pillar of Yemeni and regional national security.

The strategic importance of eastern Yemen

The eastern governorates, particularly Hadramawt, Shabwa, and Al-Mahra, hold immense geopolitical and economic importance. They constitute Yemen's strategic depth and contain the majority of the country's oil and gas resources. Therefore, any instability in these areas negatively impacts Yemen's already struggling economy and hinders the government's efforts to provide services to its citizens. Hence, Saudi Arabia's intervention to impose a ceasefire is a pressing necessity to ensure the continued flow of resources and secure vital waterways.

Strengthening the unity of the Presidential Leadership Council

Politically, the Saudi plan aims to strengthen the cohesion of the Presidential Leadership Council, which includes representatives from various influential forces, including the Southern Transitional Council. The ongoing military and political tensions in the east threaten to undermine the consensus upon which the Council was founded. Therefore, a "smooth exit" and military redeployment based on a unified vision is a necessary step to rebuild trust among the power-sharing partners and refocus efforts on the primary objective of restoring the state and ending the coup, or entering into comprehensive peace negotiations from a position of strength.

Saudi Arabia's role and its regional influence

This movement reflects the pivotal role played by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as leader of the Arab Coalition and sponsor of the political process in Yemen. The stability of Yemen is integral to the security of the region, and Riyadh is working diligently to prevent liberated areas from becoming hotbeds of internal conflict. The success of the de-escalation process in eastern Yemen is expected to improve the living conditions of the population and pave the way for reconstruction and development projects funded by the Saudi Program for the Development and Reconstruction of Yemen, thus contributing to overall regional stability.