The ongoing conflict in the region has cast a dark shadow over diplomatic efforts to revive the Iranian nuclear agreement. Recent indicators suggest that Oman's pivotal role as a trusted mediator has faced significant challenges as a result of the continuing war. Muscat, which has long served as a diplomatic bridge between Tehran and Western capitals, believes that the heightened military tensions have effectively frozen any tangible progress on this complex issue.
The history of Omani mediation: a diplomacy of positive neutrality
To understand the depth of the current influence, one must consider the historical background of Oman’s role. The Sultanate of Oman has long pursued a policy of “positive neutrality,” making it the most effective back channel between the United States and Iran, even during the darkest periods of diplomatic rupture. Muscat hosted the secret talks that paved the way for the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and played a crucial role in prisoner exchanges and rapprochement.
This long-standing diplomatic legacy made Amman the first stop for any exchange of messages between Washington and Tehran, but current dynamics have imposed a new reality that exceeds the ability of traditional diplomatic channels to contain the situation quickly.
The impact of war on negotiation priorities
The current war in Gaza and its regional repercussions have led to a radical shift in priorities among the parties involved. Instead of focusing on the details of nuclear enrichment and lifting sanctions, international and regional attention has turned to preventing the conflict from escalating and averting a full-blown regional war. This shift in focus has relegated talk of a "nuclear agreement" to a secondary—at least temporarily—priority compared to the urgent need to de-escalate the military situation.
Observers believe that the involvement of parties affiliated with the resistance axis in the confrontations has further complicated the American position, as it has become politically difficult for the Biden administration to engage in fruitful public or even secret negotiations with Tehran in light of the continued attacks on American interests or its allies in the region.
Future implications and the importance of maintaining open channels
Despite the current stalemate imposed by the war, the importance of Oman's role remains and is even growing. The absence of a political horizon and the collapse of remaining trust between the West and Iran make the presence of an impartial mediator absolutely essential to prevent a slide into an unpredictable confrontation. The current undermining of negotiations does not signify their end, but rather their entry into a phase of "crisis management" instead of "crisis resolution.".
In conclusion, the data indicates that the resumption of nuclear negotiations in earnest is contingent upon a ceasefire and calm on the regional fronts, as the nuclear track cannot be separated from the explosive geopolitical reality in the Middle East.
