Recent economic reports, citing informed sources, indicate that the OPEC+ alliance is steadily moving towards resuming its plans to increase crude oil production, starting next April. This anticipated step comes as part of the alliance's proactive strategy to prepare for the expected peak global demand season during the summer, in addition to capitalizing on current geopolitical conditions that are supporting oil prices at levels comfortable for producers.
The crucial March meeting and market expectations
According to Western media reports, a final decision has not yet been officially made, but the general trend among member states strongly leans towards approving an increase in supplies during the ministerial meeting scheduled for early March. The weeks leading up to the meeting are expected to see intensive consultations and bilateral talks among alliance leaders to ensure consensus on the quantities to be released into the markets, thus balancing supply and demand without disrupting price stability.
Decision motivations: Summer demand and geopolitical tensions
The move to increase production is based on two main factors. The first is the traditional rise in global fuel consumption during the summer months, as demand increases for transportation, travel, and electricity generation for cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. The second factor is the support currently being provided to oil prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions, specifically the US-Iranian tensions, which impose a "risk premium" on prices, giving OPEC+ room to maneuver and pump more barrels without fear of a price collapse.
Historical background and alliance politics
It is worth noting that the OPEC+ alliance, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its non-OPEC allies led by Russia, had adopted a cautious policy in the past. Data indicates that member countries had increased their production quotas by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day for the period from April to the end of December 2025. However, the alliance was forced to suspend further increases during the first quarter of 2026 in response to the usual seasonal decline in demand at the beginning of the year and to prevent a supply glut in the markets.
Expected economic impact
This decision, if adopted, is expected to have a tangible impact on the global economy. Increased supply could help curb global inflation linked to energy costs, providing relief to consuming nations. Regionally, producing countries will benefit from increased export volumes while maintaining competitive price levels, boosting their revenues and supporting their development plans.
