Russia ends its commitment to the New START nuclear treaty: global repercussions
In a striking development reflecting the deepening rift between the superpowers, Russia officially announced that it is no longer bound by the terms of the New START nuclear treaty with the United States, which was set to expire on February 5. This announcement further complicates the global security landscape, effectively dismantling the last remaining pillar of nuclear arms control between Moscow and Washington.
Details of the Russian position
The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a firm official statement asserting that Moscow considers all parties to the New START Treaty to be no longer bound by any mutual commitments or declarations under the agreement. This statement effectively signals the collapse of the inspection and data-sharing mechanisms that served as a safeguard against misunderstandings or a slide toward an unintended nuclear confrontation.
Historical background: What is the New START Treaty?
The New START Treaty, signed in Prague in 2010 by then-Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, is considered a cornerstone of post-Cold War strategic security. The treaty entered into force in 2011 and stipulated the following:
- Setting a ceiling of 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads per country.
- The number of bombers and intercontinental ballistic missiles was set at 700 deployed units.
- Conducting reciprocal inspections of nuclear sites to ensure compliance with the terms.
This treaty was the natural extension of the START I and SORT agreements, and represented the only remaining legal obligation restricting the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers, which together possess about 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads.
The geopolitical context and escalating tensions
This decision cannot be separated from the broader context of deteriorating relations between Russia and the West, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The past period has witnessed an exchange of accusations between Washington and Moscow regarding violations of the treaty's provisions. The United States has accused Russia of refusing to resume on-site inspections, which were suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic, while Russia has linked its return to full compliance to a change in Washington's hostile policies toward Moscow.
Expected repercussions for international security
Terminating the commitment to the New START treaty carries serious risks at both the regional and international levels:
- Lack of transparency: The cessation of data exchange means that neither side can verify the other's arsenal, increasing suspicion and military miscalculation.
- A new arms race: Without legal constraints, the two countries may move to modernize and expand their nuclear arsenals and develop new delivery systems, which could draw other powers such as China into the race.
- The collapse of the global arms control system: This event represents a major blow to nuclear non-proliferation efforts and may encourage other countries seeking to acquire nuclear weapons to proceed with their programs in the absence of international deterrence.
In conclusion, this decision places the world before a new phase characterized by strategic ambiguity, where global nuclear security now lacks the controls and treaties that maintained the balance of terror for decades.
