Why are the Houthis afraid of Israel recognizing Somaliland? A strategic analysis
Geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Horn of Africa and the southern Red Sea region, where the Houthis in Yemen view any Israeli move to recognize Somaliland as an independent state as a direct threat and a strategic encirclement of their influence. This concern is not unfounded, but rather based on precise military and security calculations related to control of international shipping lanes, particularly the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The strategic importance of Somaliland's location
Somaliland lies on the southern shore of the Gulf of Aden, directly overlooking the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. For the Houthis, who control large parts of northern Yemen and the western coast along the Red Sea, an Israeli presence on the opposite shore would place them in a pincer movement. This potential presence could grant Israel advanced intelligence and military capabilities to monitor maritime movements and alleged arms transfers, thus limiting the Houthis' ability to maneuver or threaten maritime navigation.
Concerns about Israeli military bases
The main concerns revolve around the possibility of Israel establishing military bases or listening posts in Somaliland in exchange for diplomatic recognition. Historically, Israel, as part of its "Periphery Doctrine," has sought to build alliances with non-Arab states or minorities in the region to break the Arab encirclement. Analysts believe that Israel gaining a foothold in the port of Berbera or other strategic locations in Somaliland would enhance its strategic depth and allow it to launch preemptive or deterrent strikes against any threats emanating from Yemen, which the Houthis consider a red line and a dangerous escalation in the region.
Regional and international context
This tension cannot be separated from the broader regional context. The Somali Federal Government vehemently rejects any recognition of Somaliland's secession and considers any external engagement with it a violation of its sovereignty. For their part, the Houthis exploit this rejection to bolster their rhetoric against what they call the "Zionist project" in the region, attempting to garner regional public support. Furthermore, Israel's involvement in the crisis could provoke other regional powers, such as Egypt, which is closely monitoring the security of the Red Sea, and Iran, which supports the Houthis and views the Red Sea as a vital corridor for its influence.
The future of the conflict in the Red Sea
The transformation of Somaliland into an Israeli sphere of influence could alter the rules of engagement in the Red Sea. Instead of the Houthi threat being directed solely at commercial vessels or Eilat in the north, they would find themselves monitored and besieged from the south as well. This scenario could push the region toward a new arms race and further militarize the Red Sea, threatening the stability of one of the world's most vital trade arteries, through which a significant portion of global energy supplies and trade flow.
