Climate forecast for summer 2026: Above-average temperatures and varying rainfall
Summer 2026: Early preparations to face weather fluctuations
The National Center of Meteorology in Saudi Arabia has released its comprehensive climate forecast for the summer of 2026, covering the months of June, July, and August. The report provides detailed climate indicators regarding rainfall and expected average temperatures across various regions of the Kingdom, aiming to support early preparedness efforts and enhance the readiness of relevant authorities to deal with any potential weather events. These seasonal forecasts come at a time of growing global concern about climate change and its impact on typical weather patterns, making such reports a vital tool for planning in critical sectors such as agriculture, water, energy, and health.
Details of the climate forecast for rainfall
The report indicated that June is expected to see rainfall around the normal average across all regions of the Kingdom. As for July, forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the Jazan and Al-Baha regions, and parts of the Asir, Makkah, Najran, and Eastern regions, while rainfall is expected to be around the normal average in the remaining regions. In August, the pattern of below-average rainfall will continue in the Jazan and Al-Baha regions, extending to parts of the Tabuk, Madinah, Makkah, Asir, Najran, and Eastern regions, while averages will remain normal in the other regions. This variation in rainfall, particularly in the southwestern highlands which rely on summer monsoon rains, may affect water reserves and the agricultural sector.
Expected heat wave: How will the regions of the Kingdom be affected?
Regarding temperatures, the report stated that climate forecasts indicate that average surface temperatures will be above normal across all regions of the Kingdom during the summer, with varying degrees of this increase. In June, Jazan, Al-Baha, and parts of Makkah, Asir, Madinah, Riyadh, Qassim, Hail, and Tabuk are expected to experience temperatures up to 1.0 degrees Celsius above average. The increase will intensify during July and August, with temperatures potentially reaching 1.6 degrees Celsius above normal in Jazan, Al-Baha, parts of Asir, and Makkah. This significant rise in temperatures necessitates increased health awareness to prevent heat stress and sunstroke, and it will also place additional strain on the electricity grid due to the intensive use of air conditioning.
The importance of summer climate forecasts and their potential impacts
These seasonal forecasts hold strategic importance that extends far beyond simply knowing the weather. Nationally, this data helps water sector decision-makers develop proactive plans to manage scarce water resources more efficiently, particularly in areas expected to experience low rainfall. It also enables the Ministry of Health to launch early awareness campaigns to warn of the dangers of high temperatures. Economically, farmers use this information to adjust irrigation schedules and select more drought-tolerant crops, while energy companies prepare for anticipated high electricity demand. Understanding these future climate patterns is a crucial step toward building a more resilient society, better equipped to adapt to environmental and climate challenges.
