Saudi Arabia Weather Forecast 2026: Rainfall and Temperatures for the First Quarter in Detail
The National Center for Meteorology has released its official climate forecast report for the first quarter of 2026, covering the first three months (January, February, and March). This report is part of the center's strategy to provide accurate information that supports decision-making and aids in early planning for various vital sectors in the Kingdom.
The importance of climate reporting and early preparedness
These quarterly reports are of paramount importance, extending far beyond simply providing daily weather information. They serve as a cornerstone for government and service agencies across the Kingdom. Sectors such as Civil Defense, municipalities, agriculture, and water resources rely on this proactive data to enhance their preparedness for heavy rainfall or unusual heat waves. Furthermore, these reports are a valuable guide for citizens and residents, particularly those who enjoy desert excursions and winter camping, enabling them to plan their activities in accordance with anticipated weather conditions.
Rainfall forecast map for January 2026
Statistical analyses and climate models have revealed that January will see significant rainfall activity. Forecasts indicate a high probability of above-average across wide areas, including:
- Parts of the west and center of the kingdom.
- East of the Medina region.
- Hail region (excluding the southern parts).
- Northern Border Region.
- Al-Jawf region (except for the western parts).
The report indicated that rainfall in these areas could range from heavy to very heavy , necessitating caution. In contrast, rainfall is expected to be around normal levels in Najran, southeast of Mecca, south of Riyadh, and the Eastern Province.
February and March forecast: Variable rainfall
Moving on to February, the center explained that climate maps indicate relative stability, with rainfall chances around the normal average and ranging from light to moderate in the Najran region, southeast of Mecca, eastern Asir, southern Riyadh, and the Eastern Province. Meanwhile, the rest of the Kingdom is expected to experience below-average rainfall.
In March, which marks the beginning of the transitional period to spring, the chances of rainfall return to around the normal average, and may reach moderate to heavy in specific areas, including:
- South and west of the Tabuk region and parts of its center.
- North and west of Medina and parts of its south.
- Northwest of Mecca.
Rising temperatures: an important climate indicator
Regarding temperatures, the report showed a climate pattern indicating a general rise in average surface temperatures during the first quarter of 2026. Prospects suggest an increase of up to (1.0) degrees Celsius above the normal average, with this rise particularly concentrated in:
- Central, southern, and eastern parts of the Eastern Province.
- East of Najran region.
- East and southeast of the Riyadh region.
The National Center of Meteorology confirms that the release of this data comes to enhance climate awareness and enable the community to benefit from reliable information, inviting those wishing to know more technical details and graphs to visit the official website of the center.
