Trump threatens Cuba with an oil cutoff and calls for a deal after Maduro's arrest
In a dangerous escalation of US foreign policy in Latin America, US President Donald Trump a strongly worded warning to the Cuban government, calling on it to "reach an agreement" urgently or face dire consequences, the nature of which he did not specify, following the US military operation that led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The end of Venezuela's lifeline
Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform: “Cuba will receive no more oil or money—nothing,” adding in a decisive tone, “I strongly suggest we make a deal before it’s too late.” These remarks strike at the heart of Havana’s economy, as the communist island has relied for decades on a strategic alliance with Caracas, initiated by the late leaders Fidel Castro and Hugo Chávez.
Historically, the relationship between the two countries has been based on a vital exchange: Venezuela sends oil shipments at heavily subsidized prices to Cuba, and in return, Cuba provides Venezuela with medical, intelligence, and security services. With the fall of the Maduro regime, Cuba loses its main source of energy, which covered a large part of its domestic needs, plunging the Cuban regime into an existential crisis.
Hints of regime change and the role of Marco Rubio
Trump did not stop at economic threats, but went to deeper political dimensions. He retweeted a message suggesting that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio , who is of Cuban descent and known for his hardline stance against the regime in Havana, could have a pivotal role in the island's future, commenting: "This sounds good to me."
Analysts point out that Rubio's appointment to the Trump administration was a clear message that Washington would abandon any appeasement policies and would seek to tighten the noose on what it calls the "troika of tyranny" in Latin America.
The situation on the ground and the economic collapse
On the ground, Trump asserted that the Cuban security presence in Venezuela had ended, citing the deaths of several Cuban personnel during Maduro's capture. He stated, "Cuba has lived for many years on vast quantities of oil and money from Venezuela in exchange for security services to dictators, but not anymore.".
Cuba is currently facing one of its worst economic crises since the collapse of the Soviet Union, suffering from frequent power outages and severe shortages of food and medicine. Observers believe that a complete cutoff of Venezuelan supplies could paralyze the island, making Trump's call for a "deal" a final warning before total economic collapse.
The question remains open as to the nature of the "agreement" that Trump intends; is it a complete political surrender and a change of regime, or new conditions for bilateral relations? However, what is certain is that the balance of power in the Caribbean has changed radically after the recent events in Caracas.
