In a significant development in diplomatic relations in the Horn of Africa, the Somali Federal Government has taken the decisive step of canceling all agreements signed with the government of the United Arab Emirates. This decision culminates a series of diplomatic and political tensions that have strained relations between the two countries recently, raising numerous questions about the future of alliances in this strategic region.
Background to the decision and escalating tensions
This decision did not come out of thin air, but was the result of complex political and security developments. The roots of the crisis lie primarily in the dispute over port management and military cooperation. The Somali parliament had previously voted in favor of a resolution banning DP World from operating in Somalia, considering the agreement the company had signed with the regions of Somaliland and Puntland to develop the ports of Berbera and Bosaso a blatant violation of Somali national sovereignty and territorial integrity, as these agreements were signed without consulting the central government in Mogadishu.
The airport incident and military cooperation
Tensions were further heightened by the well-known incident at Mogadishu's Aden Adde International Airport, where Somali security forces detained a UAE plane and confiscated cash intended, according to the UAE, to support Somali army units trained by the Emirates. Somali authorities, however, considered the entry of these funds in this manner suspicious and a circumvention of official diplomatic channels. In response, Somalia announced the termination of the UAE-run military training program, which had been in place since 2014 and aimed to equip Somali forces to combat the extremist group al-Shabaab.
Regional and international dimensions
This event is of paramount importance given Somalia's geostrategic location in the Horn of Africa, overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, one of the world's most vital trade and oil shipping lanes. Observers believe this decision is indirectly linked to the Gulf crisis that erupted in 2017, during which Somalia attempted to maintain neutrality, a stance that displeased some regional actors. The cancellation of the agreements reflects the federal government in Mogadishu's desire to reshape its foreign relations and reaffirm its central authority over all Somali regions, rejecting any external dealings that bypass official state channels.
Future implications
This decision is expected to cast a shadow over the political and economic landscape of the region. Domestically, the withdrawal of Emirati investments and military support could lead to temporary economic and security challenges for the Somali government. Regionally, this shift may reshape alliances, with Somalia potentially seeking to strengthen its ties with other regional powers such as Turkey and Qatar to fill the void left by the Emirati withdrawal. The situation remains fluid as Somalia strives to consolidate its statehood after decades of instability.
