Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings expects Saudi Arabia to maintain its dominance as one of the largest issuers of dollar-denominated debt and sukuk in emerging markets, a strong indicator of the depth and resilience of the Saudi financial market. This forecast is driven by a range of economic and strategic factors, most notably the ongoing financing needs of major projects and ambitious regulatory initiatives, coupled with expectations of lower oil prices and declining global interest rates.
Rapid growth of the debt market
The agency predicted in its recent report that the size of the outstanding Saudi debt market would jump to about $600 billion in 2026. The data showed that dollar-denominated debt issuances witnessed remarkable growth of 49%, reaching a value of nearly $100 billion, reflecting the appetite of international investors for Saudi securities.
In a related context, Fitch confirmed that the total outstanding Saudi debt market exceeded the $520 billion mark during 2025. It pointed to a qualitative achievement for the Kingdom, as it topped the list of dollar debt issuers in emerging markets (excluding China) last year, acquiring a market share of 18%, which reinforces Riyadh's position as an emerging regional and international financial center.
Vision 2030 and financing engines
This growth cannot be viewed in isolation from the broader economic context of the Kingdom under Vision 2030. Economic diversification programs and mega-projects such as NEOM, the Red Sea Project, and Qiddiya require substantial cash flow, prompting the government, major corporations, and the Public Investment Fund to tap into global and domestic debt markets. This increased borrowing is a calculated strategy to preserve foreign reserves while financing infrastructure projects that will generate sustainable returns in the future.
Foreign investor confidence and regulatory reforms
The agency noted a radical shift in investor profile, with structural reforms in the financial market contributing to attracting foreign capital. Foreign investors now account for more than 10% of the government’s total outstanding direct domestic issuances in key markets by the end of 2025, compared to just 4.5% in 2024. This increase reflects the success of the National Debt Management Center and regulatory bodies in enhancing transparency and improving market efficiency, making Saudi debt instruments a safe and attractive haven for global investment portfolios.
Future prospects
In conclusion, the Fitch report shows that Saudi Arabia’s public debt strategy is proceeding according to flexible plans that adapt to changes in energy markets and interest rates, which ensures financial sustainability that supports non-oil economic growth and consolidates the Kingdom’s position as a pivotal player in the global financial system.
