The Houthis' calculation of gains overshadows the slogan of unified squares
Introduction: Political pragmatism versus ideology
Amid the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the position of the Houthi group in Yemen stands out as one of the most complex issues. Despite the group's adoption of the slogan "unity of the squares," a slogan embraced by the so-called "axis of resistance," in-depth analyses of the political and military realities indicate that political and economic gains clearly outweigh this ideological slogan, as the group exploits regional events to serve its own agenda.
Historical context: From local rebellion to regional actor
To understand this strategic shift, one must consider the historical context of the Yemeni crisis. Since the Houthis seized control of the capital, Sana'a, in late 2014, Yemen has been embroiled in a brutal civil war and regional military intervention. Throughout these years, the group has sought to consolidate its power as a fait accompli, leveraging regional alliances to develop its military arsenal. With the outbreak of the recent war in October, the group saw a golden opportunity to reposition itself not only as a local party in a Yemeni conflict, but also as an influential regional player capable of threatening international shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The slogan "unity of the squares" as a cover for strategic gains
The slogan “unity of the fronts,” which emerged prominently to link the Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq fronts, has been used by the Houthis as a cover for launching naval attacks, missiles, and drones. However, a closer examination reveals that these moves are governed by a high degree of pragmatism. The Houthis are acutely aware of international fault lines and, through their calculated escalation, seek purely strategic gains. They are using these attacks as a powerful bargaining chip in their ongoing negotiations with Saudi Arabia and the international community, aiming to extract economic and political concessions, such as paying salaries to employees in the areas they control, fully reopening airports and seaports, and recognition as the legitimate governing power.
Local impact: Escaping internal crises
Domestically, this approach yields significant gains for the group. Escalating tensions abroad under the banner of supporting the Palestinian cause—a cause that enjoys widespread popular support in Yemen and the Arab world—helps the Houthis evade domestic challenges. This strategy alleviates public discontent stemming from deteriorating living conditions and the economy, and justifies the continuation of general mobilization and fundraising efforts. However, this tactic comes at the expense of the Yemeni people, who are suffering one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, as international peace efforts falter and the suffering of civilians worsens daily.
Regional and international repercussions: New pressure points
Regionally and internationally, the Houthi “calculating gains” strategy has proven highly effective. Repeated attacks in the Red Sea have disrupted global trade, prompting the United States and Britain to form naval coalitions and launch airstrikes against Houthi positions. Despite these strikes, the group benefits from projecting an image of defiance against major powers, bolstering its symbolic standing. However, the group is extremely careful to avoid being drawn into a full-blown regional war that could jeopardize the political and military gains it has made on the ground over the past decade.
a summary
In conclusion, it can be said that the Houthi group is managing its current conflict with a pragmatic mindset that prioritizes self-interest and maintaining power above any transnational ideological considerations. The slogan of "unity of the squares" is merely a tactical tool serving a broader strategy aimed at consolidating Houthi influence in Yemen and the region, thus making the path to peace and regional stability contingent on these complex and volatile calculations.
