In a remarkable development on the ground, the fastest of its kind in a long time, Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative and made significant territorial gains, recapturing an estimated 201 square kilometers from Russian forces between Wednesday and Sunday of last week. This advance coincides with reports that Kyiv has successfully exploited technical vulnerabilities that have affected Russian communications capabilities.
The role of technology and the disruption of "Starlink"
Military analyses, including a report by Agence France-Presse based on data from the Institute for the Study of War, indicated that this Ukrainian advance was closely linked to the disruption of the Russian military's Starlink satellite internet service. The Institute, which collaborates with the US-based Critical Threats Project, explained that Ukrainian counterattacks capitalized on the recently imposed ban preventing Russian forces from using this system, thereby disrupting Russian command, control, and communications operations on the battlefield.
On February 5, observers detected malfunctions in Starlink antennas used by Moscow on the front lines, following Elon Musk's announcement of measures to restrict this unauthorized use. Kyiv maintains that Russian forces were relying on this technology to circumvent electronic jamming systems and accurately guide drones.
Historical context of the conflict
To understand the significance of this development, one must consider the historical background of the conflict, which did not begin with the full-scale invasion in February 2022, but rather traces its roots back to 2014 with Russia's annexation of Crimea and the control of parts of the Donbas region by pro-Russian separatists. Since then, the fighting has transformed into a protracted war of attrition, characterized by largely static front lines for extended periods. Therefore, the recapture of 201 square kilometers in just a few days is an exceptional event that breaks the stalemate on the ground.
The strategic importance of the recaptured areas
The significance of these recent gains lies in their geographical location, with the majority of the recaptured territory situated approximately 80 kilometers east of Zaporizhzhia. This region is a vital strategic axis, as Russia seeks to consolidate its control over it to secure the land corridor linking mainland Russia to Crimea. Consequently, any Ukrainian incursion along this corridor poses a direct threat to the logistical supply lines of Russian forces in the south.
The language of numbers and field control
Despite this progress, significant challenges remain. As of mid-February, the percentage of Ukrainian territory under Russian control (either wholly or partially) had fallen to approximately 19.5%, compared to 18.6% a year earlier, reflecting the fluid nature of the fighting. It's worth noting that roughly 7% of Ukrainian territory was under Russian control before the full-scale invasion began in 2022. This recently recaptured territory represents the largest area Kyiv has gained in such a short period since its counter-offensive in June 2023, providing a morale boost to Ukrainian forces and demonstrating the effectiveness of modern electronic warfare strategies.
