The United Nations has warned that the “pessimistic” scenarios it has long feared regarding the repercussions of the Middle East war are becoming a tangible reality, threatening to push tens of millions of people worldwide into the grip of acute hunger. This stark warning comes at a time of escalating geopolitical tensions that are directly impacting global energy and food markets, raising the specter of a widespread humanitarian crisis if the conflict continues.
A few weeks after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which ignited the conflict and caused severe disruptions in global energy markets, the World Food Programme confirmed that rising oil prices pose a direct and serious threat to global food security. These developments were not surprising to international organizations closely monitoring the stability of the region, a vital artery for global energy, as a significant portion of the world's oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which borders Iran.
The spark of conflict shakes global energy markets
The region hardly needed further tensions. Existing conflicts, coupled with global economic challenges and climate change, had already pushed global food security to the brink. But the outbreak of direct confrontations has dramatically exacerbated the situation. As soon as military operations began, crude oil prices skyrocketed, which in turn impacted shipping, transportation, and agricultural production costs, given the heavy reliance on fuel and its derivatives. This escalation is placing immense pressure on food and fuel-importing countries, particularly those with already fragile economies.
From oil prices to a loaf of bread: How are the repercussions of the Middle East war affecting food security?
In its analysis released in March, the World Food Programme warned that if oil prices remained around $100 a barrel until the end of June, an additional 45 million people worldwide would face acute hunger. These would join the nearly 320 million people already suffering from acute food insecurity at the beginning of the year. Now, almost three months into the conflict, Jan Martin Bauer, the WFP's director of food and nutrition analysis, stated that "the worst-case scenario is beginning to materialize.".
Power explained that closing the Strait of Hormuz, even partially, would “exacerbate hunger,” pointing to the sharp rise in prices of basic food commodities such as rice and wheat. He added, “Unfortunately, the dire predictions made earlier this year are beginning to materialize, and we must act immediately.” According to the program’s analysis, the current crisis is having serious repercussions through fuel, food, and income price crises, as well as trade disruptions. When these factors interact with existing vulnerabilities, they quickly translate into tangible effects on the food security and livelihoods of millions.
