US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made very optimistic statements about the future of the world's largest economy, predicting that the US economy will achieve growth rates of at least 3.5% during 2026. These statements came during an interview the Secretary gave to "The Well Can Show" on Fox News on Friday, where he indicated that upcoming fiscal policies will play a pivotal role in this economic acceleration.
Government optimism, but experts remain cautious
While the Treasury Secretary expresses considerable optimism, a recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) reveals a more cautious outlook from independent economists. The survey indicates that the U.S. economy will only pick up slightly in 2026, with job gains expected to remain relatively weak. Survey participants also agreed that the Federal Reserve may be forced to slow the pace of interest rate cuts, which could put pressure on market liquidity.
According to the survey, economists' average growth forecast rose to 2%, compared to 1.8% in a previous survey conducted in October, and just 1.3% last June. Despite this improvement, expectations remain far from the 3.5% target set by Prime Minister Bessent, reflecting a gap between government ambitions and realistic market estimates.
Growth engines: artificial intelligence and taxes
The US administration's economic team is reportedly counting on two key drivers of growth in 2026: tax cuts that will stimulate consumer and investment spending, and a massive surge in artificial intelligence investments. It is projected that integrating AI technologies into the infrastructure of US companies will boost productivity to unprecedented levels, thus supporting GDP.
However, experts warned that the new tariffs on imports, imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, could act as a brake on growth, with survey participants almost unanimously agreeing that they could shave at least a quarter of a percentage point off projected growth, as a result of higher production costs and prices for consumers.
Current context: Slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2025
These projections come at a time when the US economy is experiencing a noticeable slowdown. Preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the US Department of Commerce indicate that GDP grew at an annualized rate of only 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This slowdown is attributed to several factors, most notably the disruptions caused by the government shutdown and the decline in consumer spending, which is the main driver of the economy.
Expected global impact
If the United States achieves 3.5% growth in 2026, it will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Such robust growth would strengthen the US dollar, potentially putting pressure on emerging market currencies. Increased US demand would also benefit energy and commodity exporters. However, the continued high interest rates associated with this growth could keep borrowing costs elevated globally, posing challenges for heavily indebted countries.
