Gaza Agreement: A US proposal for the gradual disarmament of Hamas and international guarantees
International diplomatic efforts, led by the United States, are intensifying to reach a final formula to end the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip. Recently, a new American proposal has emerged, focusing on a thorny and complex point: the gradual "disarmament of Hamas" as part of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement.
Features of the new American proposal
Reports and political discussions indicate that the US administration is seeking to break the deadlock in negotiations by proposing compromise solutions to the outstanding issues. The proposal centers on the idea of gradually dismantling Hamas's military capabilities, rather than demanding immediate and complete disarmament, which the movement would categorically reject. This vision includes a specific timetable that coincides with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from certain areas of the Gaza Strip, the return of displaced persons, and the commencement of reconstruction efforts, thus creating a parallel political and security track.
The issue of guarantees: the most significant obstacle
The success of this proposal hinges fundamentally on the issue of "guarantees" demanded by both sides. On the one hand, Hamas seeks solid international guarantees that would prevent the targeting of its leaders or a resumption of hostilities once it surrenders some of its weapons, in addition to guarantees for ending the blockade and opening the crossings. On the other hand, Israel demands American and regional security guarantees that Gaza will not pose a future threat and that the disarmament process will be genuine and verifiable, not merely a stalling tactic.
General context and historical background
This proposal comes amid a devastating war that erupted on October 7, leaving behind immense destruction of Gaza's infrastructure and an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The issue of Palestinian factions' weapons has long been a red line for Hamas, while Israel has considered the war's primary objective to be "eliminating Hamas's military and political capabilities." Therefore, talk of a "gradual" disarmament process represents a shift in negotiating tactics, an attempt to bridge the deep chasm between the two sides' conflicting goals.
Strategic importance and impact of the event
This proposal is of paramount importance on several levels:
- Locally: It could represent a lifeline for civilians in Gaza to end the humanitarian suffering and begin the recovery phase, despite the internal challenges that the factions may face in accepting the principle of giving up weapons.
- Regionally: The United States and mediators (Egypt and Qatar) are seeking to calm the front in Gaza to prevent the conflict from escalating into a full-blown regional war that could draw in other parties such as Lebanon or Yemen more broadly.
- Internationally: The Biden administration considers reaching an agreement a top priority for US foreign policy before the elections, and to ensure the stability of the Middle East and the security of waterways and energy.
In conclusion, the American proposal regarding the gradual disarmament of Hamas remains contingent upon the acceptance of mutual guarantees and the extent to which the parties are willing to make painful concessions to end a bloody chapter of the conflict.
