In a significant development in the global geopolitical landscape, the United States and Russia announced on Thursday that they had reached an agreement to resume high-level military dialogue between the two countries. This crucial step comes just hours after the expiration of the New START treaty, the last major agreement that imposed binding limits on the nuclear arsenals of the world's two largest nuclear powers.
Background to the event: The end of the era of nuclear censorship
The expiration of the New START Treaty marks a historic turning point in international relations. Signed in 2010, this treaty served as a cornerstone in limiting the nuclear arms race by setting a limit of 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads per country. With its expiration without renewal, US-Russian relations have entered a new phase characterized by uncertainty and the absence of legally binding frameworks for mutual oversight, raising widespread international concerns about the potential for a new, unchecked arms race.
The motivation behind resuming dialogue: the Ukrainian peace process
According to sources, the agreement to reopen direct military communication channels did not come out of thin air, but rather as a result of what was described as "fruitful and constructive" progress in the peace talks on the Ukrainian crisis hosted by the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi. These talks witnessed a notable diplomatic presence, with US President-elect Donald Trump sending his special envoy, Steve Wittkopf, and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, indicating intensive diplomatic activity behind the scenes aimed at de-escalating tensions in conflict zones.
Official positions and the importance of military communication
In response to this development, the U.S. European Command issued a statement emphasizing the strategic importance of this dialogue. The statement read, “Maintaining inter-military dialogue is crucial to promoting global stability and peace.” The Command affirmed that these channels provide an effective means of increasing transparency and reducing the risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation, which is vital given the current tensions.
For its part, Moscow has taken a firm stance regarding its previous commitments, with the Russian Foreign Ministry explicitly declaring that the parties to the New START treaty are no longer bound by any mutual pledges or declarations under the expired treaty, thus confirming Russia’s liberation from the quantitative and qualitative restrictions that were previously imposed.
Expected effects
Observers believe that resuming military dialogue, despite the collapse of the nuclear treaty, represents a necessary "safety valve" to prevent a slide into direct confrontation. In the absence of arms control treaties, direct military communication channels (deconfliction lines) become the only remaining tool for crisis management and preventing accidental incidents that could ignite a global conflict, especially given the ongoing friction between Russian and NATO forces in several theaters of operation.
