Southern consensus towards the Riyadh conference: Implications for unifying the Yemeni ranks

The Yemeni political scene is witnessing intense diplomatic and political activity, culminating in the emergence of broad consensus among southern political factions to actively participate in the Riyadh consultations. This agreement represents a pivotal step in the Yemeni crisis, as all eyes turn to the Saudi capital, which is leading intensive efforts to bridge the divide and unify ranks in the face of the ongoing challenges that have plagued Yemen for years.

General context and historical background

This southern consensus cannot be understood in isolation from the historical complexities of the southern cause. Since Yemeni unification in 1990 and the subsequent civil war of 1994, political and social factors accumulated, leading to the emergence of the peaceful Southern Movement in 2007 and the formation of the Southern Transitional Council and other influential groups on the ground. Divergent visions among these groups, and between them and the legitimate government, have consistently hindered the formation of a unified and cohesive front. The Riyadh Conference, or the consultations sponsored by the Gulf Cooperation Council, represents a serious attempt to complete the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement signed in November 2019, which stipulated political, military, and security partnerships aimed at ending tensions in the liberated governorates.

The importance of the Saudi and Gulf role

This consensus gains significance from the political weight that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries carry as key sponsors of the political process in Yemen. Riyadh's invitation to all Yemeni parties to sit at the negotiating table reflects a regional and international desire to turn the page on internal disputes within the legitimate government's camp. The response of the southern factions to this call is an indication of political maturity and an understanding of the gravity of the situation, as current circumstances necessitate overcoming minor differences to focus on restoring the state and its institutions.

Expected impacts locally and regionally

This consensus and participation in the Riyadh conference is expected to yield tangible results on several levels:

• On the political and military level: Unifying and coordinating the southern visions with the legitimate government will strengthen the negotiating position of legitimacy before the international community, and will also contribute to directing the military compass more effectively towards confronting the Iranian-backed Houthi coup.
• On the economic and service front: Yemeni citizens, particularly in the southern governorates, are suffering from a sharp decline in services and a currency collapse. The political stability that could result from this conference is a prerequisite for the government to resume effective operations from the interim capital, Aden, thus paving the way for Gulf and international economic support packages to rescue the collapsing economy.
• On the international level: This consensus sends a reassuring message to the international community that the parties opposed to the Houthis are capable of working together, thus facilitating the efforts of the UN envoy in formulating a comprehensive roadmap for lasting peace.

In conclusion, the southern consensus towards the Riyadh conference represents a historic opportunity that may not be repeated to rearrange the internal Yemeni house and establish a new phase based on partnership and consensus to end the war and restore stability.