The future of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen: Integrating forces and a political solution

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) file in Yemen is one of the most complex and sensitive issues in the current Yemeni political landscape, with attention focused on the future of this entity within the political and military arrangements sponsored by the United Nations and influential regional powers. Talk of "dissolving" or restructuring the STC does not necessarily mean abolishing its existence, but rather is closely linked to the integration of military and security formations into official state institutions, as stipulated in previous agreements such as the Riyadh Agreement.

General context and historical background

The Southern Transitional Council was established in May 2017, headed by Aidarus al-Zubaidi, the former governor of Aden, to be a political vehicle for the demands of a broad segment of southerners, specifically what is known as the “Southern Cause,” which calls for secession from the north and a return to the pre-1990 borders. The roots of this cause go back to the aftermath of the summer war of 1994, when the peaceful Southern Movement emerged in 2007 to demand rights and reform the course of unity, before events developed with the outbreak of the last war in 2015, which enabled the southern forces to control the land with the support of the Arab coalition.

Riyadh Agreement and the Presidential Leadership Council

The Riyadh Agreement, signed in November 2019, marked a major turning point, aiming to end tensions between the legitimate government and the Southern Transitional Council (STC) by integrating the STC's military and security forces into the Ministries of Defense and Interior. While the military and security aspects of the agreement have not been fully implemented, significant progress has been made on the political front with the formation of the Presidential Leadership Council in April 2022, in which the head of the STC became an active member, thus shifting the conflict from the battlefield to the political arena and decision-making processes.

Importance and expected impact

The "solution" file, which addresses the problem of multiple military formations and their integration, is of paramount importance on several levels:

• Locally: Unifying the military and security decision is considered a prerequisite for restoring stability to the interim capital Aden and the liberated governorates, improving the deteriorating economic situation, and stopping the decline of the local currency.
• Regionally: The stability of southern Yemen contributes to securing international waterways, specifically the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden, which is a strategic interest for neighboring countries and the world.
• Internationally: The international community supports the idea of ​​a unified Yemeni state with strong institutions, and sees the integration of the various components, including the Transitional Council, as a necessary step to reach a comprehensive and sustainable peace that ends the war that has been going on for years.

In conclusion, the future of the Southern Transitional Council remains contingent on the negotiations for a comprehensive final settlement in Yemen, as the Council seeks to secure a special framework for resolving the southern issue, while other parties and international mediators seek to ensure the unity and sovereignty of state institutions.