Introduction: The strategic importance of the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa, and specifically Somaliland, is at the forefront of geopolitical events amid reports of efforts by regional and international powers, including Israel, to expand their influence. This situation raises fundamental questions about the limits of Arab action to halt this potential expansion, especially given the region's strategic location overlooking vital waterways such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, making it an integral part of Arab national security.
General context and historical background
Somaliland unilaterally declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, following the collapse of the central government in Mogadishu. Despite the passage of decades, the region has not received international or UN recognition. In this context, the government in Hargeisa (the capital of Somaliland) is seeking international partnerships that could pave the way for recognition. Meanwhile, Israel, as part of its historical strategy known as the "Periphery Doctrine," has long sought to build relations with non-Arab states in the Arab world, and considers the Horn of Africa a strategic target for securing Israeli navigation in the Red Sea and expanding its security and intelligence influence.
The importance of the event and its expected impact
Any Israeli or foreign expansion into Somaliland would have far-reaching consequences:
- At the local level: This expansion deepens the Somali divide and weakens the efforts of the federal government in Mogadishu to restore the territorial integrity of Somalia, thus fueling internal instability.
- At the regional level, the Israeli presence near Bab el-Mandeb poses a direct threat to the national security of several Arab states bordering the Red Sea, most notably Egypt and Saudi Arabia. It also intersects with the ambitions of other countries, such as Ethiopia, which recently signed a controversial memorandum of understanding with Somaliland to gain access to the sea.
- At the international level: It increases the militarization of the Red Sea, a vital passage through which about 12% of global trade passes, raising concerns among major powers and making the region an arena for settling international scores.
Limits of Arab actions and available options
Arab actions regarding this issue are complex. On the one hand, the Arab League consistently affirms its support for Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, rejecting any agreements that infringe upon this sovereignty. Egypt's position has recently been strongly emphasized through the signing of a military cooperation protocol with Mogadishu, sending a clear message of its rejection of any expansion that threatens the security of the Red Sea.
However, Arab efforts face several limitations and obstacles, most notably the divergent priorities and economic interests of some regional actors in the ports of Somaliland, in addition to Ethiopia's growing influence, which complicates the situation. Furthermore, the absence of a unified and comprehensive Arab strategy for addressing the crises in the Horn of Africa creates a vacuum that other powers exploit to strengthen their presence.
a summary
In conclusion, halting Israeli expansion or any other unwelcome foreign influence in Somaliland requires more than mere statements of condemnation. It necessitates a comprehensive Arab response that includes economic, political, and security support for the Somali Federal Government, along with establishing effective channels of dialogue with various actors in the Horn of Africa to ensure the protection of Arab national security and maritime navigation in the Red Sea.
