In a move reflecting cautious optimism about the future of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.3% , an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared to its previous estimate last October. This positive revision is driven by the ability of major economies to adapt to trade fluctuations, as well as the significant momentum generated by the surge in investment in artificial intelligence technologies.
Adjusting expectations and their underlying reasons
The IMF maintained its 2025 growth forecast at 3.3% and its 2027 forecast at 3.2%, but focused on 2026, which appears promising thanks to several factors. The IMF report explained that global companies have successfully restructured their supply chains with remarkable resilience, mitigating the impact of trade shocks. Bilateral and regional trade agreements have also contributed to lowering effective tariffs, with the IMF basing its projections on the assumption that the effective rate of US tariffs will fall to 18.5%, down from previous estimates of around 25%.
Artificial intelligence: the new engine of growth
Artificial intelligence (AI) is the most prominent factor in these optimistic forecasts. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that massive investments in AI infrastructure could boost global growth by up to 0.3 percentage points in 2026. This effect is particularly evident in the US economy, which the IMF projects will grow by 2.4% in 2026, fueled by increased productivity and technological innovation. However, the IMF cautioned that this rapid growth could put downward pressure on inflation or lead to a sharp correction in financial market valuations if the anticipated productivity gains are not realized quickly enough.
Global Growth Map: Between East and West
Regarding other major economies, the IMF raised its forecast for Chinese economic growth to 4.5% in 2026, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from its October estimate. This is partly due to China's success in diversifying its exports to alternative markets and easing tariffs. In contrast, the IMF projects growth of 1.3% for the Eurozone, with a slight improvement in Japan, while Brazil's forecast was lowered to 1.6% as a result of monetary policy tightening there.
Inflation trajectory and monetary policies
The report carries good news regarding price stability, as the IMF expects global inflation to continue declining from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, reaching 3.4% in 2027. This gradual decline in inflation rates opens the door for central banks around the world to adopt more accommodative monetary policies, which enhances the prospects for sustainable growth and eases the financial burdens on both emerging and advanced economies.
