Türkiye and Ethiopia's maritime ambitions: Will relations with Egypt be harmed?
Recent diplomatic and military moves in the Horn of Africa raise fundamental questions about the future of regional alliances, particularly regarding Turkey's stance on Ethiopia's maritime ambitions—a highly sensitive issue for Egyptian national security. This comes at a time when relations between Cairo and Ankara are undergoing a rapprochement and a rebuilding of trust after years of estrangement, presenting Turkish diplomacy with a difficult test in balancing its diverse interests.
Context of the crisis: Memorandum of Understanding and access to the Red Sea
The roots of the current tension lie in Ethiopia's persistent pursuit of a sovereign sea outlet, given its landlocked status since Eritrea's independence in 1993. This ambition was recently manifested in the signing of a controversial memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region of Somaliland, granting Addis Ababa the right to use a maritime gateway for commercial and military purposes in exchange for potential recognition of the region's independence. This move has angered the Somali Federal Government and prompted Egypt to declare its full support for Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, asserting that any Ethiopian military presence in the Red Sea threatens the security of navigation in the Suez Canal and further complicates the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) issue.
Turkey's role: Between drones and the defense of Somalia
Turkey finds itself in a very delicate position. On the one hand, Ankara has strong economic and military ties with Ethiopia, where Turkish Bayraktar drones played a crucial role in the Ethiopian civil war on behalf of the federal government. On the other hand, Turkey is a strategic ally of Somalia, maintaining its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu and recently signing a defense and economic cooperation agreement to protect Somalia's coastline.
The question now is: Will Turkey risk opening the door to supporting Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions? Analysts suggest that Ankara is trying to play a mediating role to de-escalate tensions rather than taking a complete stance. Openly supporting Ethiopia’s ambitions could undermine reconciliation efforts with Egypt, which considers Red Sea security a red line, and would also conflict with Turkey’s commitments to the unity of Somalia.
Expected regional and international impacts
Any Turkish move to support the Ethiopian navy would not be a mere bilateral act, but would extend to the security balance in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Egypt and other Arab states fear the militarization of the Red Sea and the encroachment of foreign influence there. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that Turkey will seek to maintain a delicate balance, leveraging its influence with Addis Ababa and Mogadishu to try to find compromises, while avoiding antagonizing Cairo, with which it has recently embarked on a new chapter of strategic and economic cooperation.
