The latest forecasts issued by the Brazilian catering company (CONAB) reveal very positive indicators for the future of coffee cultivation in the world's largest coffee-producing country, as Brazil is on track to record a record-breaking harvest in 2026. Official estimates indicate that production will reach 66.2 million bags of green coffee, representing a significant leap of 17.1% compared to 2025 levels.
Details of the new records
The public institution explained in its first report on coffee harvest forecasts for 2026 that, if these estimates hold true, production will surpass the previous record set in 2020, which reached 63.1 million bags. This growth is driven by a strategic increase in cultivated area, now estimated at 1.9 million hectares, representing an annual increase of 4.1%, in addition to a significant improvement in production efficiency and yield, which is expected to reach 34.2 bags per hectare, a 12.4% increase compared to the previous season.
Dominance of "Arabica" and "Robusta" varieties
In detailing the coffee varieties, Arabica coffee, the most sought-after and consumed variety globally thanks to its high quality, is expected to maintain its leading position with a production of 44.1 million bags, achieving a significant increase of 23.3% compared to 2025. In contrast, the production of Cornelon (Robusta) coffee, which is often used in the manufacture of instant coffee, is expected to rise to 22.1 million bags, with an annual increase of 6.4%.
Historical context and economic importance
Historically, Brazil has reigned supreme in global coffee production for over 150 years, playing a pivotal role in shaping global market trends. This projected achievement for 2026 is not merely a matter of agricultural figures, but also reflects advancements in the country's agricultural infrastructure. CONAP attributes this significant improvement in productivity to more favorable climatic conditions in growing regions recently, coupled with increased reliance on modern agricultural technologies and best farm management practices, which have helped mitigate the impact of weather fluctuations that previously devastated crops.
Expected impact on global markets
This announcement is of paramount importance to the global economy and commodity markets. Such a large increase in the supply of Brazilian coffee is expected to contribute to stabilizing global prices, which have fluctuated in recent years due to supply chain problems and climate change. This bumper harvest is anticipated to reassure international markets and ensure a steady supply to coffee roasters and consumers worldwide, reinforcing Brazil's position as a cornerstone of food security in the caffeinated beverage sector and putting competitive pressure on other producers such as Vietnam and Colombia.
