Recent reports, based on information from US intelligence agencies, reveal that China is currently working on an ambitious plan to develop a new and advanced generation of nuclear weapons . Security assessments indicate that Beijing conducted at least one covert nuclear test in the past few years, specifically in 2020, as part of a comprehensive strategy aimed at completely modernizing its nuclear arsenal to become the most technologically advanced in the world.
According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to CNN, US analysis of the collected evidence confirms that the primary motivation behind these tests is China's desire to possess unprecedented strategic deterrent capabilities. This includes developing missile systems capable of carrying multiple miniaturized nuclear warheads (MIRVs) on a single missile, thus complicating the task of enemy missile defense systems in intercepting them.
Strategic shift and development of tactical weapons
China's ambitions extend beyond simply increasing the number of warheads; they encompass the quality of its weaponry. Intelligence suggests that Beijing is developing tactical nuclear weapons , a type of weapon China has not previously produced. Experts believe this shift may aim to provide flexible military options for use in limited regional conflicts or defensive scenarios near China's borders, including potential military escalation around Taiwan or in response to any possible US intervention in the region.
This radical development in China’s nuclear capabilities is fueling debates within Western intelligence circles about whether Beijing is changing its historical nuclear doctrine based on “minimum deterrence” and a “no first use” policy, to move to a more offensive posture and high readiness to launch.
Historical background and international balance
Historically, China joined the nuclear club in 1964 and for decades maintained a relatively small arsenal compared to the two superpowers (the United States and Russia). However, the current pace of modernization is causing concern in Washington, with the US Department of Defense (Pentagon) previously issuing reports warning that China is expanding missile silo sites and accelerating warhead production.
Although China’s arsenal still lags quantitatively behind the massive stockpiles of Russia and the United States, which possess the largest share of the world’s nuclear weapons, China’s current focus is on quality, speed, and accuracy. U.S. officials believe that the 2020 nuclear test and the expansion of nuclear facilities are strong indicators that Beijing is striving to close the technological gap, which could shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region and pose new challenges to global arms control agreements.
