In a striking and unexpected development in the Yemeni political and military landscape, informed sources reported that the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council issued explicit directives ordering Emirati forces and all their personnel present on Yemeni soil to leave within 24 hours. This decision marks a sharp turning point in relations between the internationally recognized Yemeni government and one of its key partners in the Arab Coalition supporting legitimacy.
Context of the crisis and background of the alliance
To understand the dimensions of this decision, it is necessary to return to the roots of the military intervention in Yemen. Since the launch of Operation Decisive Storm in March 2015, the United Arab Emirates has played a pivotal role as a key partner of Saudi Arabia in the Arab coalition aimed at restoring legitimacy and ending the Houthi coup. Emirati influence has been largely concentrated in the southern and eastern governorates, particularly in Aden, Shabwa, and Hadramawt, as well as the Socotra archipelago, where it has contributed to training and arming local military formations.
Presidential Leadership Council: Challenges and Responsibilities
The Presidential Leadership Council was established in April 2022, headed by Dr. Rashad al-Alimi, following the declaration of the transfer of power from former President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. Its aim was to unify the anti-Houthi forces and manage the transitional phase. The council includes leaders representing various active forces on the ground, including the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council. Therefore, the decision to withdraw Emirati forces indicates deep divisions and fundamental disagreements that may relate to national sovereignty, resource management, or security and military arrangements in the liberated areas.
Potential repercussions: locally and regionally
This decision has serious repercussions on several levels:
- On the military level: The sudden withdrawal of Emirati forces may lead to a security vacuum in some vital areas, which could be exploited by Al-Qaeda or the Houthi group to expand their influence, unless there is an alternative plan ready by the government or Saudi forces to fill this vacuum.
- On the political level: This decision may threaten the cohesion of the Presidential Leadership Council itself, given the close relationship between some members of the council and Abu Dhabi, which may reshuffle the political cards and plunge the liberated areas into a new spiral of internal conflict.
- On a regional level: This development raises questions about the future of the Arab coalition and its strategies in Yemen, and how Saudi Arabia will deal with this new development to ensure continued pressure on the Houthis and to reach a comprehensive political settlement.
In conclusion, the Yemeni scene remains open to all possibilities, as observers await official reactions from the Emirati side and the next steps that the Presidential Leadership Council will take to ensure the stability of the liberated areas and unify the home front in the face of escalating economic and humanitarian challenges.
