Dr. Abdullah Al-Musnad, Professor of Climate at Qassim University (formerly) and Vice President of the Saudi Weather and Climate Association, announced long-term astronomical and climatic forecasts indicating a major shift in the timing of the Hajj season, as the Hajj pilgrimage is expected to enter the winter season starting from the year 1454 AH, and will continue in this season for approximately 9 consecutive years.
The scientific context behind the changing seasons of Hajj
This periodic shift in the timing of Hajj is based on the difference between the Islamic lunar calendar and the Gregorian solar calendar. The Islamic year is approximately 11 days shorter than the Gregorian year, causing Islamic observances, including Hajj, to "migrate" through the four seasons in a cycle that lasts about 33 years. This annual shift is what means that Muslims around the world experience performing Hajj in vastly different climatic conditions throughout their lives, from scorching summers to cold, rainy winters.
From the heat of summer to the mildness of winter
In recent years, the Hajj season has fallen during the peak of summer, with record-breaking temperatures in Mecca and the holy sites, posing a significant challenge to both pilgrims and Saudi authorities. This has necessitated enormous organizational and health efforts to mitigate the effects of heat stress and sunstroke. As the climatic cycle nears its end, the upcoming transition to autumn and then winter promises more moderate and comfortable conditions for the pilgrims.
Timetable for the winter Hajj season
According to Dr. Al-Musnad's analysis, based on 54 years of data, the first Hajj season to fall within the winter season will be in 1454 AH, coinciding with Eid al-Adha on March 11, 2033. He added that Hajj will continue to fall within the winter season for several consecutive years, until it moves out of it after 1461 AH (corresponding to December 26, 2039), shifting to the autumn season. He indicated that the cycle will be completed, with Hajj returning to winter again in 1487 AH.
Importance and expected effects
This climate shift is of paramount importance on several levels. On a humanitarian level, lower temperatures will significantly reduce health risks, especially for the elderly and those with chronic illnesses, making the Hajj experience more accessible and safer. On an organizational level, these projections offer Saudi Arabian authorities an opportunity for long-term strategic planning, allowing them to adapt infrastructure, logistics, and medical services to meet the demands of Hajj in mild or cold weather. This may include preparing for rainfall rather than focusing solely on cooling and ventilation systems.
Understanding these climatic and astronomical cycles not only helps improve the Hajj experience, but also enhances the Kingdom’s ability to manage one of the world’s largest human gatherings efficiently and flexibly, embodying the integration of science and planning to serve religious rites.
