Tensions escalate: French army prepares for open war scenario
Amid the rapid geopolitical shifts unfolding in Europe, the French Chief of Staff, General Fabien Mandon, warned of the gravity of the current situation, emphasizing that the possibility of an open war with Russia necessitates an urgent and unprecedented strengthening of French defense capabilities. These remarks were made during a hearing before the parliamentary defense committee, which was dedicated to discussing the modernization of the military programming law to bolster the defense budget by 2030.
Historical context and the shift in the French position
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in late February 2022, European security doctrine has undergone a radical shift. France has gradually abandoned its traditional role as a diplomatic mediator, adopting a more assertive and firm stance toward Moscow. This shift has been clearly reflected in recent statements by the French political leadership, which have not ruled out sending Western troops to Ukraine, demonstrating a deep understanding that the Russian threat is no longer confined to Eastern Europe but extends to threaten the national security of the entire European continent.
The growth of Russian military capabilities: figures and facts
General Mandon explained that the continued Russian threat in Europe remains the primary concern of the French military leadership. He based his warnings on precise intelligence assessments indicating the growing manpower and equipment of the Russian army. The number of Russian soldiers is expected to rise from 1.3 million in 2025 to approximately 1.9 million by 2030. In terms of equipment, projections indicate a significant increase in the number of Russian heavy tanks, jumping from 4,000 in 2025 to 7,000 in 2030, while the Russian navy is expected to maintain a fleet of between 230 and 240 warships.
Deterrence strategy: France's historic defense budget
To address these challenges, the French government is finalizing a draft law to modernize its military programming. The draft, recently presented to the cabinet, allocates a substantial additional €36 billion to the armed forces. This sum will be added to the already record-breaking €413 billion budget for the period 2024-2030. Mandon emphasized that this massive investment is not a luxury, but rather “an absolute necessity for the defense of our citizens, the defense of our country, and the protection of our strategic interests.”.
Expected impact at the local, regional, and international levels
At the local level: This unprecedented military spending will contribute to revitalizing the French defense industry, creating new jobs, as well as enhancing the sense of security among French citizens in a turbulent international environment.
At the regional level, this approach reinforces France's position as a leading military power within the European Union and NATO. These steps align with Paris's ongoing calls for building "European strategic autonomy" capable of defending the continent without relying entirely on the American security umbrella.
At the international level, France is sending a clear message of deterrence to Russia and any other powers seeking to change the international order by force. This readiness reflects a return to the classic deterrence policies that characterized the Cold War era, but with modern tools and technologies.
Summary: Vigilance without panicking
In concluding his remarks, General Mandon was careful to deliver a balanced message to the public, stating: “We are in a dangerous phase, and we must not cause panic, but rather remain vigilant, because we desperately need this investment in defense.” This French approach reflects a deep understanding of the current situation, where preparedness for war is the best way to prevent it.
