Hajj seasons until 2077: Climate and time predictions for the next fifty years
In a long-term forward-looking analysis, Dr. Abdullah Al-Musnad, former Professor of Climatology at Qassim University and Vice President of the Saudi Weather and Climate Society, presented a comprehensive statistical and descriptive study predicting the temporal and climatic patterns of Hajj seasons over more than half a century, specifically from 1447 AH (2026 CE) to 1500 AH (2077 CE). This study offers an indispensable future vision for both organizers and pilgrims, providing a clear roadmap for addressing the challenges and opportunities associated with the timing of the pilgrimage.
General context: The Hajj cycle through the seasons
The timing of the Hajj pilgrimage is based on the Islamic lunar calendar, which is approximately 11 days shorter than the Gregorian solar calendar each year. This difference causes the Hajj season to shift through the four seasons in a complete cycle of about 33 years. This continuous shift is the fundamental reason why studying the "Musnad" (a collection of hadiths) is such a crucial strategic tool, as performing the rituals in the summer differs radically from performing them in the winter in terms of logistical and health requirements.
Distribution of Hajj seasons across the seasons until 2077
The study revealed that the Hajj seasons over the next 54 Hijri years will be distributed unevenly across the four seasons. Winter will have the largest share, with the Hajj occurring 17 times, divided into two periods: the first between 1454 AH and 1461 AH, and the second between 1487 AH and 1495 AH. Spring will follow, hosting the Hajj 15 times, also divided into two periods: from 1447 AH to 1453 AH, and from 1479 AH to 1486 AH. Autumn will be the third most frequent season, with the Hajj occurring 13 times (1462 AH to 1469 AH and from 1496 AH to 1500 AH). Summer will be the least frequent, with the Hajj occurring only nine consecutive years between 1470 AH and 1478 AH, a period requiring the highest level of preparation to cope with the high temperatures.
The importance and expected impact of the study
The importance of this study extends beyond academic analysis, serving as a vital planning tool. Locally, it enables the Saudi government and Hajj organizers, such as the Ministry of Hajj and Umrah, the Ministry of Health, and the Civil Defense, to proactively plan infrastructure and services. For example, investments in cooling and air conditioning technologies for camps and water supplies can be prioritized before the summer season, and health awareness campaigns targeting pilgrims can be directed towards preventing heat stress and sunstroke. Internationally, this data assists Hajj missions in various countries in preparing their pilgrims both psychologically and physically, and allows tourism companies and travel agencies to tailor their programs to anticipated climatic conditions.
Other statistical details
The study went beyond classroom observations, analyzing the frequency with which Eid al-Adha (the 10th of Dhu al-Hijjah) falls on different days of the week. It revealed that Saturday is the most frequent day (11 times), followed by Monday (10 times), then Wednesday and Thursday (9 times each). Sunday, Tuesday, and Friday are the least frequent, occurring only 5 times each. The study also indicated that the Day of Arafah coinciding with a Friday, known as the "Greater Pilgrimage," will occur 11 times during the study period.
Among the notable astronomical phenomena observed in the analysis is the occurrence of two Eid al-Adha celebrations in a single calendar year during this period. The first instance will be in 2039 CE (falling on January 5th and then December 26th), and the second in 2071 CE (January 11th and December 31st). Al-Musnad emphasizes that this analysis relies on precise astronomical criteria for determining the beginning of lunar months, thus granting it a high degree of reliability for future planning.
