Israeli penetration of the Horn of Africa strengthens Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement
Egyptian-Turkish relations are undergoing a rapid strategic transformation, driven by a number of regional and international variables, most notably Israel's growing influence in the Horn of Africa. This expansion, which now poses a direct threat to Arab and African national security, has become a decisive factor in thawing relations between Cairo and Ankara, pushing the two capitals toward coordinating joint positions that transcend past disagreements.
General context: The Horn of Africa as an arena of power struggles
The Horn of Africa has long been a target of international and regional powers due to its strategic geopolitical location overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. In recent years, Israel has intensified its diplomatic and security activities in the region, particularly by strengthening its ties with Ethiopia and other East African nations. These moves are raising concerns in Cairo, which considers the security of the Red Sea and the Nile's headwaters a red line that cannot be crossed, especially in light of the ongoing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis.
Dimensions of the new Egyptian-Turkish rapprochement
On the other hand, Turkey wields considerable influence in Somalia and the Horn of Africa through military bases and massive development projects. Ankara and Cairo have found themselves facing common challenges that necessitate cooperation rather than competition. Israeli actions, sometimes aimed at containing Arab and Turkish influence, have prompted the political leadership in both countries to reassess their positions. This process culminated in high-level reciprocal visits between the Egyptian and Turkish presidents, heralding a new phase of strategic partnership.
Impact of developments in Somalia and the Red Sea
The Somali issue perhaps represents the most prominent point of convergence at present. Both Egypt and Turkey reject the controversial agreement between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland, which grants Addis Ababa access to the sea and a military base. Cairo and Ankara view this agreement as a threat to Somalia's unity and a destabilizing factor for the region. Consequently, Egypt has strengthened its military and diplomatic presence in Mogadishu in coordination with Turkey, sending a clear message that regional security in East Africa and the Red Sea is a shared responsibility that cannot be left to external interference.
Future prospects: An alliance of necessity and interests
Egyptian-Turkish coordination is no longer a luxury but a pressing strategic necessity. With the ongoing war in Gaza and its repercussions on maritime security in the Red Sea, coupled with Ethiopian ambitions and Israeli actions, observers expect this rapprochement to evolve further, encompassing deeper military and intelligence cooperation, as well as economic partnerships. This emerging alliance could reshape the balance of power in the Middle East and Africa, forming a bulwark against attempts to undermine the national security of both countries.
