In a significant development in the Yemeni political and military landscape, Aidarus al-Zubaidi, head of the Southern Transitional Council and a member of the Presidential Leadership Council, hinted at the possibility of proceeding with a declaration of the restoration of the South Yemeni state (secession). This comes as a direct response to mounting pressure regarding the issue of regaining control of military camps and security in the strategic Hadramawt Governorate. This threat is particularly relevant given the intense disputes within the governorate over the fate of the First Military Region.
The roots of the crisis in Hadramawt
Al-Zubaidi's statements cannot be interpreted in isolation from the tense situation on the ground in the Hadramawt Valley and Desert. The Southern Transitional Council has long demanded the withdrawal of the First Military Region forces, whose members are mostly from the northern governorates, and their replacement with the Hadrami Elite Forces loyal to the Council. This region is of paramount importance due to its vast geographical location and the presence of major oil fields, making control of it a valuable bargaining chip in any future political negotiations for a final settlement in Yemen.
Historical and political background
This escalation brings to mind the complexities of the Yemeni unification process of 1990 and the subsequent 1994 civil war, which southerners consider a turning point that sidelined their unification partner. Since its establishment in 2017, the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has adopted "secession" as its top priority. Despite the STC's partnership with the legitimate government under the Riyadh Agreement and its subsequent participation in the Presidential Leadership Council formed in April 2022, disagreements over the management of military affairs in the south, particularly in Shabwa and Hadramawt, remain a ticking time bomb threatening the council's cohesion.
Potential local and regional repercussions
Al-Zubaidi's threat of secession at this time carries serious implications for the future of the Presidential Leadership Council, which was formed to unify efforts against the Houthi group. Any unilateral move toward secession could lead to the disintegration of the anti-Houthi front, giving the group an opportunity to consolidate its power. Regionally, this escalation presents the Arab Coalition with complex challenges in balancing support for the legitimate government with maintaining stability in liberated areas, especially since Hadramawt represents a strategic and security depth for Saudi Arabia. Observers believe that the current pressure may be a bargaining chip to achieve military gains on the ground in Hadramawt rather than an immediate declaration of statehood. However, continued political stalemate could push matters toward unforeseen scenarios.
