Russian intelligence: Conflict continues and attacks likely to resume
Amid escalating geopolitical events in the Middle East, recent reports from Russian intelligence indicate that an end to the conflict and military tensions between the United States and Iran is not imminent, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts and negotiations. According to Al Arabiya's official X platform, Russian intelligence confirmed that a resolution to the conflict with Iran remains unlikely, adding that the possibility of renewed US attacks against Iranian targets cannot be ruled out. This assessment comes at a time when Russia is playing a strategic role in monitoring international balances, particularly with its allies in the Middle East.
Enforcing the American blockade and securing the Strait of Hormuz
On the ground, the US military announced a significant escalation in its naval operations, confirming that its forces are fully enforcing the blockade on Iranian ports to prevent oil exports. Detailing the operations, the military explained that it forced two ships to comply with the blockade this week by firing warning shots. It also noted that four ships were disabled, while 15 others carrying humanitarian aid were allowed to pass. Since the blockade began, 67 ships have been diverted. To ensure air and sea dominance, the US military indicated that F-35 fighter jets are conducting continuous patrols over territorial waters near the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important strategic waterway, through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes.
Historical background and implications of the maximum pressure policy
To understand the broader context of this escalation, we must return to the immediate roots of the crisis. US-Iranian relations have deteriorated sharply since 2018, when the US administration unilaterally withdrew from the nuclear agreement and reimposed harsh economic sanctions as part of its "maximum pressure" campaign. This policy aimed to cripple the Iranian economy, particularly its oil exports, to force Tehran into making political and military concessions, which explains the current complexity and the difficulty of reaching a near-term settlement.
Power struggle within the United States: Congress versus the President
In a related development concerning US domestic politics, which directly impacts the course of events, the US Senate witnessed a heated debate regarding the authority to declare war. The Senate narrowly rejected a resolution that sought to order the withdrawal of US forces participating in any hostilities against Iran or to restrict President Donald Trump's military powers. This resolution faced strong opposition from the Republican majority. The US Constitution clearly stipulates that Congress alone has the power to declare war, and on this basis, Democratic lawmakers consistently attempt to reaffirm the legislative branch's authority vis-à-vis the executive branch to ensure that the country does not become embroiled in an open-ended war.
Expected impact regionally and internationally
The continuation of this state of tension casts a heavy shadow on regional security, increasing the likelihood of accidental escalation in the Arabian Gulf. Internationally, it keeps global energy markets in a state of constant flux, fearing any sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to an unprecedented global energy crisis.
