Introduction to the political crisis in Somalia
The political scene in Somalia is experiencing escalating tension following recent decisions to extend the mandates of Somali institutions and postpone elections , threatening to plunge the country into a new division with no clear end in sight. This dangerous development recalls the series of political crises that have plagued the country in recent years and raises serious questions about the future of stability in the Horn of Africa.
General context and historical background of the event
Historically, Somalia has suffered from a fragile political system since the collapse of the central government in 1991. Since the establishment of the Transitional Federal Government, the country has relied on an indirect electoral system known as the “4.5” system for power-sharing among clans. Despite persistent international and domestic efforts to transition to a direct, one-person-one-vote system, security and political challenges have repeatedly prevented this.
Recently, proposals have emerged from the Somali National Consultative Assembly to amend the constitution and extend the terms of the president and regional parliaments, thereby postponing the Somali elections . This move is reminiscent of the severe political crisis that erupted in 2021 when attempts were made to extend the term of the former president, leading to armed clashes in the capital, Mogadishu, and a sharp division within the security forces.
Reasons for political division and rejectionist stances
The decision to extend the mandates of Somali institutions has sparked widespread rejection from prominent political figures, including former presidents and leaders of federal states, most notably Puntland, which has repeatedly announced its boycott of National Consultative Assembly meetings and its opposition to any constitutional amendments made without broad national consensus. The opposition views these moves as an attempt to monopolize power and undermine the nascent federal democratic system, warning that the lack of consensus will lead to a constitutional vacuum that threatens the legitimacy of all state institutions.
The importance of the event and its expected impact
Local and security impact
Domestically, this political division poses a direct threat to Somali national security. Disagreements among the political elite are diverting government efforts from combating al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda-linked group that frequently exploits such crises and political vacuums to expand its influence and launch terrorist attacks. This political uncertainty is also negatively impacting the local economy and hindering much-needed development and reconstruction efforts by the Somali people.
Regional and international impact
Regionally, Somalia occupies a strategically sensitive area in the Horn of Africa. Any instability in Mogadishu immediately impacts the security of neighboring countries and maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. Internationally, the postponement of the Somali elections a source of concern for the international community and donors who have invested billions of dollars in building state institutions and supporting the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This division could derail plans for the gradual withdrawal of African forces and the full handover of security responsibilities to Somali forces, presenting international partners with complex challenges that require urgent diplomatic intervention to prevent the country from descending into further chaos.
