As the year draws to a close, the international investment community eagerly awaits the Financial Times' annual report, which outlines the economic landscape for the coming year. In its latest edition, the newspaper highlighted key questions on investors' minds, ranging from the potential repercussions of tariffs linked to Donald Trump's policies to the fate of what it termed the "artificial intelligence bubble." However, the most striking prediction that captured attention concerned safe-haven assets, with the newspaper forecasting that gold prices would reach a record high of $5,000 per ounce in 2026 .
2025: An exceptional year for precious metals
This excessive optimism comes after a year described as exceptional in the history of financial markets; precious metals recorded record annual gains in 2025. The surge wasn't limited to gold; silver and platinum prices also saw significant jumps, more than doubling in value. As for the yellow metal, it continued to break records, achieving its strongest annual performance in over four decades, specifically since 1979, surging by approximately 65% to unprecedented levels.
Driving factors behind the historic rise
To understand these bold future projections, it's essential to examine the fundamental drivers behind this surge. Analysts point to the significant increase in holdings of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the strong, sustained demand from global central banks to diversify their reserves away from fiat currencies as key support for prices. Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions have played a pivotal role in reinforcing gold's status as a store of value during times of crisis, prompting investors to hedge against potential risks.
The impact of monetary policies and inflation
Economically, these projections are closely tied to the trajectory of global interest rates and inflation. Historically, gold prices thrive in low-interest-rate environments or when the purchasing power of currencies is eroded by inflation. With talk of new tariffs and protectionist policies, concerns are growing about inflationary waves that could push gold to the $5,000 level mentioned in the report, as capital always seeks to preserve its real value.
Current market movement: Temporary profit-taking
In current trading, despite a positive outlook, prices saw a slight decline in a quiet session amid the holiday season, which experts attribute to normal profit-taking after a long upward trend. Spot gold fell to $4,318.90 an ounce, its lowest level in over two weeks, while US gold futures for February delivery dropped 1.5% to settle at roughly the same level.
In conclusion, gold remains the most sensitive indicator of the health of the global economy, and the expectation that it will reach $5,000 is not just a number, but a reflection of deep structural changes in the global financial system, the chapters of which we may clearly witness in 2026.
