Former US President Donald Trump described the potential US confrontation or war with Iran as "just a minor detour" in his administration's strategy, predicting that victory was imminent. These remarks come at a sensitive time, as recent polls show a decline in the popularity of such a military confrontation among the American public due to its direct economic repercussions.
The historical context of the “maximum pressure” policy
To understand the nature of the current statements, it is necessary to revisit the historical background of relations between Washington and Tehran during Trump's first term. His administration adopted a policy of "maximum pressure," the most prominent aspect of which was the unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and the imposition of harsh economic sanctions. This historic escalation laid the groundwork for the current tensions, as the United States seeks to curb Iran's regional influence and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons, a goal clearly reflected in Trump's current political rhetoric.
Iran's nuclear capabilities and economic promises
At a rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, promoting the “Gratuity Tax Elimination Act”—a key component of last year’s major tax reform—Trump, 79, boasted about his economic achievements since his anticipated return to office in 2025. “We have the best economy in the history of our country, despite the slight twist in beautiful Iran,” Trump told the crowd. He added, justifying his hardline stance, “But we had to do it, because otherwise, bad things could happen, very bad things,” a clear reference to Iran’s growing nuclear capabilities.
Trump confidently asserted, “We are on the verge of victory,” adding, in a historical comparison of American military interventions, “We spent 17 years in Vietnam, five years in Afghanistan, and much more in various other places. As for us, I said we were only there for two months.”.
The strategic importance and impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz
The significance of any conflict with Iran and its anticipated regional and international impact cannot be underestimated. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for the global economy, through which approximately 20% of the world's daily oil consumption passes. Any threat to or closure of this strategic waterway would immediately shock global energy markets, driving up inflation and directly impacting fuel prices.
High costs and declining public support
Domestically, in the United States, voters appear to be feeling the weight of these tensions. A poll conducted by Ipsos last weekend showed that 51% of more than 1,000 respondents believed that a war with Iran would not have been worth the enormous costs associated with it. In contrast, less than a quarter of those polled, approximately 24%, said otherwise.
The gasoline price crisis and opinion polls
Another poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University and released on Wednesday, revealed that economic repercussions are playing a decisive role in shaping public opinion. The results showed that 65% of American voters hold Trump responsible for the recent surge in gasoline prices, a direct consequence of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The same poll indicated that only 36% of voters approve of Trump's handling of the Iran situation, while 58% express disapproval.
